MLB Best Bets for Sunday (9/26)

Another brutal loss on for our last MLB Best bets column. We were on the under of 7.5 runs in between the Twins and the Cubs last time out and after four runs in the first two innings, things weren’t looking good. Fast-forward to the top of the ninth in a 4-2 game and we’re on the verge of cashing. Three meaningless runs come around to score and Minnesota walks away with a 5-4 victory, killing the under.

It seems like we’ve either been cashing or having our hearts ripped out by horrible beats lately, so hopefully, the betting gods will throw us a bone to end the week. We have our usual slew of afternoon games on a Sunday slate so let’s look to build some bankroll to reinvest into Sunday Night Football tonight. Let’s jump right into the matchup I see the most value on and highlight the reasons behind the bet.

Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds

Washington +170, Caesars Sportsbook, Cincinnati -177 Unibet

Washington and Cincinnati will wrap up their current four-game series with the Nationals trying to come away with the series win. Rookie lefthander Josh Rogers will be on the hill for Washington as Cincinnati counters with Tyler Mahle.

Despite their struggles overall as a team, Washington has been able to put up some pretty good numbers overall offensively and has been a top-10 unit with a .327 wOBA and 102 wRC+ overall and on the road, checking in with a .322 wOBA and 100 wRC+ away from Nationals Park. Recently, however, they’ve really started to turn it on. Over their last 30 days, they’ve been one of the best lineups in the league with a .337 wOBA and 109 wRC+ and have gotten progressively better over their last 14 with a .350 wOBA and 119 wRC+ and finally a .351 wOBA and 120 wRC+ over their last 7. Since the All-Star break, Washington has been great at putting up runs early and getting to the opposing starter and has put up a .343 wOBA and 112 wRC+ through the first five innings in the second half. On a more individual level, unless you’ve been living under a rock, I suspect you’ve heard of what Juan Soto is currently doing. Since the All-Star break, he’s been putting up herculean stats with a .506 wOBA and 218 wRC+. He has a .548 OBP, .700 SLG, 1.249 OPS, and a .324 ISO in the second half with a 17% barrel%, 51.7% hard hit%, and a 93.3mph average exit velocity. This man has been on an absolute mission for the past two and a half months and the rest of the offense is beginning to heat up with him.

Josh Rogers has only thrown 25 innings across four starts to begin his career in Washington and has a shiny 2.16 ERA, but an extremely inflated 4.52 FIP. He’s gotten fairly lucky in both the BABIP and HR/FB departments with marks of just .211 and 9.4%. On top of the low HR/FB ratio, he has a fairly high 44% flyball percentage so if the regression monster does come around to bite him then he could be letting up some home runs in bunches especially facing a powerful Cincinnati lineup. In his limited time, Rogers has been hit harder on the road than at home with a .300 wOBA against and a 4.91 FIP away from Nationals Park. Cincinnati is starting a lineup entirely made up of right-handed hitters which is horrible news for Rogers as he has some pretty dramatic righty/lefty splits. Righthanded batters have touched him up for a .335 wOBA to go along with an extremely high 5.77 FIP and he’s been especially bad facing righties on the road checking in with a .390 wOBA against and a 6.28 FIP. Not only has he gotten lucky from a BABIP and HR/FB standpoint, but he’s also gotten very lucky in the offenses he’s had to face so far with the Mets, Pirates, and Marlins twice. Cincinnati’s group is an entirely different beast than any of these lineups and Rogers could see some regression hit him in this one.

For a vast majority of the season, Cincinnati had been one of the top-5 offenses in the league, but has been trending in the wrong direction over the last few weeks and, understandably, ever since they lost Jesse Winker to a rib injury that landed him on the IL on 8/16. For as cold as they have been, they’ve been a top-10 offense on the year at home with a .344 wOBA and 105 wRC+ and they’ve been getting hot lately with a .375 wOBA and 131 wRC+ over their last seven games. Since the All-Star break, they’ve been one of the better teams in the league through the first five innings, putting up a .342 wOBA and 107 wRC+ over that span. They’ve shown to have the ability to score early and at 5.39 R/G, Cincinnati is the fourth-highest scoring home team in the league. They’ll be throwing out a lineup of nine righties to feast off of a left-hander that struggles against righties and if that doesn’t scream runs then I don’t know what does.

Tyler Mahle has been the epitome of Jekyll and Hyde this season in terms of home and road splits. He’s been phenomenal on the road this season with a .249 wOBA against and a 2.79 FIP, but when he’s pitching at The Great American Ballpark, he’s been lit up to the tune of a .378 wOBA against and a 5.40 FIP. His last two home starts have come against the lowly Pirates and Tigers and even facing them he allowed seven earned runs in just 9.1 innings. In the second half, Mahle’s had an extremely high 5.47 FIP through the first five innings at home and it hasn’t mattered the level of competition that he’s faced.  Pitching in Cincinnati isn’t an easy task for any pitchers, but Mahle, unfortunately, gets the bad luck of having to pitch there in essentially half of his starts. While facing an offense that is surging like Washington’s, this isn’t a game where I expect Mahle to figure out his home woes.

The Pick

Runs seem to be on the table in nearly every split in this game. Josh Rogers struggles on the road versus righties and Cincinnati is starting nine righties. Tyler Mahle has been a dumpster fire at home and this game is being played in Cincinnati. No major league pitcher has been able to get Juan Soto out in the second half and Tyler Mahle at home certainly doesn’t seem to have the stuff to silence him either. I’m like both overs in this one. o9 -115 and F5 o5 +100 BetMGM