MLB Best Bets for Monday (9/27)

After two more bets Sunday, we’re still stuck in the see-saw of cashing bets and losing on bad beats. Washington and Cincinnati were at a combined four runs after the fifth inning to fall short of the first five inning over, but then Cincinnati scored four more in the bottom of the sixth just an inning too late. The full game over still hit with Cincinnati winning 9-2, but sixth inning runs are always a tough pill to swallow.

Coming into the last week of the season, the MLB Best Bets column is up a solid 10.3 units and looking to make it more on Monday’s extremely small slate. With only five games on the schedule, and three of them matinees, value is sure to be spread thin, but that won’t stop us from diving deep into the games to identify profitable edges.

As always, I’ll highlight some interesting stats in the matchup I plan on targeting today and walk you through the most valuable angle on the slate.

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians

Kansas City +157, Caesars Sportsbook; Cleveland -172, Caesars Sportsbook

Kansas City and Cleveland will get together at Progressive Field for a makeup game that was postponed Sept. 21. Jackson Kowar will get the start in this one-game trip to Cleveland to square off against Cal Quantrill.

Jackson Kowar’s start to his big-league career certainly hasn’t gone according to plan. Through six starts and 22 innings, he has an 11.45 ERA, 7.12 FIP, 7.77 K/9, and 7.36 BB/9 – just abysmal numbers across the board. He had shown elite strikeout numbers and better control in the minors, putting up 12.83 K/9 and 3.79 BB/9 across 80.2 innings in AAA this season, so there’s certainly still hope for the young right-hander. He has been pretty unlucky in terms of BABIP this season with an inflated mark at .371, so there’s also the possibility of some positive regression coming his way when that settled back down to around .300. Kowar’s arsenal consists of main a four-seamer (55.9%) and changeup (31.4%) with a slider (10.8%) and curveball (1.9%) occasionally sprinkled in. While his strikeout numbers may not look impressive overall at the major league level, he generates a high K% and whiff rate on both his changeup (20% K%, 38.9% whiff rate) and his slider (31% K%, 34.9% whiff rate), which could be a combination to look for with Cleveland ranking below average facing both pitches and bottom-10 in the majors facing changeups. Also of note, the one successful start Kowar has had in the majors came against Cleveland Sept. 1 where he went six innings with two earned runs and six strikeouts.

I’m not going to sit here and try to convince you that Kansas City, with their .303 wOBA and 89 wRC+, is a powerful offense by any means, but I will attempt to show that they may be better than we perceive them to be. After ranking near the bottom of the league in most offensive splits for the majority of the year, Kansas City has turned it on a little bit as of late ranking towards the middle of the pack over the last 30 days with a .316 wOBA and 98 wRC+, good for 15th in the majors. The last two weeks is where they’ve really started to turn it n though, and have been performing at a top-10 rate with a .335 wOBA and 111 wRC+, better than the Dodgers, White Sox, and Rays over that time span. They have top-10 marks in both barrel rate (8.3%) and hard hit rate (39.9%), while surprisingly having a top-five average exit velocity at 89.8mph. This offense may not be one that keeps opposing pitchers up at night, but it’s also not one that should be slept on especially when it seems like they’re starting to get hot.

Cal Quantrill has had a pretty successful season results-wise going 7-3 over 21 starts and 143.2 innings with a 2.82 ERA. He has, however, gotten considerably lucky with a BABIP sitting at just .265, a HR/FB ratio at 11.6%, and an xFIP that’s almost two runs higher than his ERA at 4.41. All seven of his wins have come over his past 15 starts, a run he’s currently on resulting in a 2.12 ERA, but again an inflated xFIP over two runs higher at 4.34 and a miniscule BABIP at .231. He has shown the ability to be able to limit hard contact, but sooner or later everybody falls victim to regression and with the season coming to an end, this might be the last chance for it to hit Quantrill. With his xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG and BB% all ranking as just about league-average with a K% that falls in the bottom 20% of the league, it’s looking like Quantrill’s results may have a significant amount of good luck baked into them.

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Cleveland certainly had the better pitching staff over the course of the 2021 season, but the offensive outputs between them and Kansas City may be closer than you thought. Cleveland’s overall marks of a .306 wOBA and 93 wRC+ aren’t a far cry from Kansas City’s .303 wOBA and 89 wRC+ and they rank as a bottom-10 offense both facing righties (.302 wOBA & 90 wRC+) and at home (.308 wOBA & 94 wRC+). They certainly lack plate discipline, as their 28.5$ CSW% ranks as the fifth-highest in the second half, and have been striking out at very high numbers over the last month or so (L30: 26.8% K%, second; L14: 26.3%, fifth; and & L7: 29.6%, highest). In combination with their high strikeout marks, they very rarely draw walks with the lowest BB% in the majors over their last 14 and seven games and the fifth-lowest 7.7% BB% overall on the season. Going up against a pitcher who has shown elite strikeout numbers all throughout the minors, while also not being able to draw many walks from a fairly wild starter could be a recipe that quiets Cleveland’s offense in this one.

The pick

Taking my talents back over to some moneyline bets and rolling with Kansas City in this one. Kowar is a promising young starter with some nasty stuff and it’s only a matter of time before he puts it all together. His strikeout ability combined with facing one of the easiest teams to strikeout in the majors should make it difficult for Cleveland to scratch across many baserunners here. On the flip side, I think Quantrill’s results have been mostly a mirage due to some fortunate luck this was and expect some negative regression to come his way in this one. I have Kansas City projected to be closer to +110 road dogs so I’m loving the value on them here. Kansas City +157 Caesars Sportsbook