NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Party people…can y’all get funky? Head-to-head fantasy baseball managers, it’s time to stand up and be accounted for. Groovin’ With Govier is officially back! So is the 2024 FTN Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, featuring some of the best in the business! FTN Fantasy’s head of baseball content Vlad Sedler has put together a stellar lineup of guest writers covering a wide range of player analysis, game theory and draft strategy topics. It also features my article on H2H strategy plus a bonus podcast complement diving deeper into H2H strategy with Dan Strafford and Michael Waterloo.
All of this comes just in time for the commencement of the annual fantasy baseball draft rituals, which will take us all the way up to Opening Day 2024. I’m referring to the proper Opening Day Thursday, March 28. Not the faux altruistic for the love of the game crap MLB is attempting to sell us between the Dodgers and Padres March 20 and 21 in South Korea. Please hit me up on Twitter or better yet subscribe to our FTN Fantasy Baseball package, where all season long our exclusive Discord provides our subs with unlimited access to all of our staff experts.
For all the diehard readers who have become reliant on this piece without fail, there is one crucial change for this season that everybody should take note of. This year, each edition of Groovin’ With Govier will be delivered to the readers with an intentional focus on H2H fantasy baseball. I will provide my usual antics from a writing perspective, but the goal will be to meet the needs of the droves of H2H fantasy baseball managers out there who have been underserved for too long. The people demanded this and in a rare win for the people, they shall have it!
There’s Nothing on that Plate Except Gristle and Fat
This week, I want to make it clear how important it is to have anywhere between two and four players prepared as a sacrifice to the fantasy baseball gods. It’s the penance that must be paid for adding them in the first place. I know I’m not alone when it comes to emotional attachment to specific players. These entanglements often come about for several reasons. We may just want to be right. We may have the desire to show how much more we know than the average fantasy baseball simpleton. Or it could be the fault of a random podcaster who offers up a juicy nugget on a player who the podcaster is convinced will crush it this year. In the end, whatever the origin of the infatuation, these situations develop thanks to the possible tantalizing production or potential that the supposed man-crush in question may provide. I must emphasize how important it is to not get caught up in what a player might be able to do in H2H redraft.
Now in fairness to deeper H2H leagues, those with keeper considerations carry a separate issue that requires a different standard of operation. Depending on the number of keepers required, it is reasonable to hold on to a player who is not producing, but yet has a future potential that offers long-term keeper value. This is when the number of players kept matters most. If a league only has six keepers and it’s a 12-team league, then hypothetically we are only talking about the top 84 players in a draft. Keeper leagues that have deeper expectations where it’s possible to keep 15 or more players make matters even more complicated because the rosters are so deep that holding a potential struggling player for the duration of the season makes more sense due to the depth of the league. Keep this keeper conundrum in mind when finalizing off-season rosters.
This strategy is just as valuable and useful for players whom we like to label as injury-prone. Players who are not injury-prone by reputation may still struggle to get on the field and provide consistent playing time let alone quality production worth keeping on a roster. Every fantasy manager who is reading this has held on to a player too long in the hopes that a player would return from an injury sooner than later only to get the dreaded notification on their phones that the player has been shut down for the season. On the flip side, stashing a player who was hogging a roster spot with the hope that said player will eventually sign on to the season with quality production is a risk that most fantasy managers are familiar with. 2022 Chris Sale is the case study worth noting in this instance. There’s no exact science to timing returns and departures. Try timing the crypto market at its maximum highs and lows. No matter what a crypto bro says, they have no soothsayer or all-knowing access that can give them the ideal time to buy or sell. Try applying the crypto way to dropping or adding injured players in fantasy baseball. Certain managers will benefit from having more IL spots than others. But if an actual roster spot is in dead IL weight, fantasy managers cannot continue to roster a player who is bringing zero results. Especially while the team may be plummeting to the bottom of the league standings.
In H2H redraft leagues, unhealthy attachments can possibly prevent managers from releasing pitchers who are hemorrhaging earned runs. Bryce Elder last year comes to mind. My personal favorite starter to watch pitch Brady Singer, who is a bulldog on the mound, left plenty of droppings in his wake on my fantasy teams. If nothing is done after a starting pitcher has four starts out of six that are devastating outings, the results can threaten the entire season. Looking for bad luck or possible injury foreshadowing from a loss in velocity are tangible factors to look for in situations like this. Yes, H2H allows for high-volume negative play to be mitigated because each week provides a brand-new slate of stats to be accumulated. It’s one of the perks of playing H2H. However, that doesn’t mean damage can’t be everlasting. A month of porous play from multiple players can lead to four ticks in the loss column fairly quickly. Six weeks can pass while a fantasy manager is stuck with multiple hitters who produced a combined batting average under .200 with minimal power stats or steals to offset the failure of the empty returns. Meanwhile, during that stretch, you’ve lost four out of six weeks just because it was too scary to let go of the idea that Nick Solak might finally break out in June after the first two months showed clearly that he just didn’t have it.
If this example seems oddly specific, that’s because it happened to me in 2021. In fact, there were two Nicks who I expected eventual production from that season (Nick Solak and Nick Senzel), but instead I was given several donuts over multiple weeks of empty box scores as my once-promising season was essentially dead by June. This brings me to the last point. This trimming of the gristle matters the most over the first two months of the season. April and May matter a great deal in H2H fantasy baseball mostly, because by the time June arrives, all that remains is July and most of August (depending on when the H2H playoffs are scheduled) to secure a playoff spot. That may seem like plenty of time during the drafting days of the preseason, but digging out of a hole in the summertime to salvage a playoff spot by August is not where anybody wants to be. Reducing the number of times we have to be right while minimizing the margin for error is a pressure-filled spot that fantasy managers can avoid if they choose to do so.
Have this premise planned out by draft day. When the draft takes place, every manager should make a promise to themselves that the last four roster spots will all be guilt-free Tinder flings. Setting the tone from the beginning of draft season with an organized Google Sheet, or Notes document for the iPhone users out there, will provide a tool of reinforcement as a reminder of this roster construction strategy. Even the most android-like fantasy managers out there tend to fall in love with their guys. It’s ok to admit we have developed feelings for certain players. It’s a natural inclination. I just want to make sure that nobody gets their hearts broken this season. Take it from someone who knows what it’s like to love and lose. Don’t be smitten. Stay disciplined.
Eenie Meenie Miney Mo
Pre-draft rankings. In the past, I had a routine of staring into that void within the link on my Yahoo team page. With each passing day of spring training, I would consider clicking on the link to prepare the shuffling and arrangement of my list. I’m confident there are many managers out there who choose to use the rankings done by the work of others instead of sorting through name after name on their own. I don’t blame them. Rankings in general are a tedious task. The superfluous pursuit of rankings players comes with a litany of additional arguments baked in. From the first league I ever played in on Yahoo over 20 years ago, the pre-draft rankings option has consistently shown up on my team page, antagonizing me for my lazy disposition. Yet, committing to a hierarchical player structure like rankings or tiers is a goal worth striving for. Creating pre-draft rankings specific to head-to-head is not something that any fantasy manager should dismiss.
One of the common mistakes still prevalent in fantasy baseball is not being aware of the league settings and rules. This includes the format. Applying roto rankings to H2H drafts is essentially using that preparation to fall behind the competition. It’s akin to reheating bread-based items in the microwave instead of using a toaster oven. Not cool! The specifics intensify when the choice between H2H points and categories rankings is on the table. The veteran managers already know this, but I am here for the newbies as much as anybody else. Starting pitching has a deeper impact in points leagues than most categories leagues. Innings pitched are usually a category worth three points an inning. The pitchers who can come close to 200 innings will frequently be more valuable even if some of those innings include a tendency to get blown up on occasion. The ratios of the finest hurlers can occasionally be jacked up by one unfortunate outing. Sandy Alcantara at Philadelphia last April can vouch for this. This is why it is crucial to have your rankings prepared for the format of choice, not simply just downloading a random rankings file and stuffing it into your Excel sheet. It would be similar to the Red Sox preparing Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to be starters only to use them as closers only instead. Wait a minute…
Right now is the time to create pre-draft rankings. H2H cats managers should be looking to make hitters top-heavy within the first 120 picks. Other suggestions are always welcomed, but for the two decades I have played H2H cats going heavy on batters has rarely failed me. Not to get all Trumpy up in here, but I have multiple H2H titles to back this up. Category punters are already executing this model to their advantage. It pays to have a strong squad of hitters week to week. They get more chances both in plate appearances and number of games played than starting pitchers can receive. I include the injury factor with pitchers as well. Hitter-heavy drafts can be complemented with pitching streamers and the latest fad of the week relievers who will either inherit a new gig or those offer value to managers within the framework of a committee.
For the first 100 players in my rankings, most likely 75-80% of those players will be hitters. That doesn’t mean I will not take a pitcher with one of my first five picks as I design my rankings to include elite arms in smaller numbers. I’m also tailoring these rankings to benefit the scoring in my home league. In BYB my H2H cats home league we use OBP. That means I am raising the rankings of guys like my main man Spencer Steer, who can draw himself a walk. Others like LaMonte Wade or Ian Happ get on base at excellent clips, but they carry a batting average that reduces their likeability in batting average scoring formats. Right now I am working on my pre-draft rankings even though there are still moves to be made in free agency before the hot stove simmers down. Tailoring pre-draft lists for H2H formats is an important part of a balanced breakfast, but just be sure to avoid too much riboflavin.
