Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
You are now experiencing a new era in fantasy baseball analysis. FTN has welcomed me with open arms (and a paycheck) to do what I do best: entertain and inform! Welcome to Groovin’ with Govier! This is my debut piece for FTN, and it is my hope that you will find this article is an enjoyable read.
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It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you will see how far down the rabbit hole my fantasy baseball analysis can go. That means each Monday (which will be the regular posting date henceforth) you actively select myself and the entire fantasy baseball team at FTN as your sherpas for the climb up the mountain towards your ultimate prize: a league championship in whatever form that may come. We have clean slate to work with, just like Joey Gallo in Los Angeles.
Everybody’s Working For The Weekend
The Orioles and Blue Jays were rained out Wednesday, so that means Dean Kremer gets to start the one-off make-up showdown with the last-place Red Sox. When the Sawks look at the AL East standings, I imagine they feel like a young professional who whisked his partner away for a weekend getaway beyond his means. After a memorable few days staying at a classy seaside hotel, the youngster opens up his banking app upon his return only to realize he’s flat busted until the next direct deposit. The Red Sox are certainly not bankrupt, but they appear to be close to filing. I was thinking about this as I watched Nick Pivetta against Atlanta Wednesday night: is Pivetta really a cut above Dean Kremer? Do we really live in a world now where Kremer is more desirable than Pivetta? That might be a stretch. Pivetta’s 4.51 ERA may be misleading as he owns a 4.16 FIP and a 4.14 SIERA (coming into Wednesday night). Kremer meanwhile has the reverse of Pivetta’s numbers sporting a sparkling 3.43 ERA with a 3.91 FIP and a 4.53 SIERA. So who would you rather have ROS?
The Royals set the standard for Restricted List chaos last month when they had 10 players out because of Canada’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate. The latest team heading to the Rogers Centre are the Cleveland Guardians. In quite the contrast though, there is only one player who is not making the trip up north: James Karinchak. The electric RP has gotten his career back on track after losing his way in 2021. I know how from personal experience how rough it got for him because I drafted him 125th overall in my first ever NFBC Main Event last season. It was a sticky situation for Karinchak, but now he’s reliable again with a 25-7 K-BB ratio on 3 ER in 14.2 IP. He’s also top 8% in the league in max exit velocity allowed at 103.8 MPH. His absence in Toronto opens the door for Peyton Battenfield to make his MLB debut. The former Tampa Bay Ray farmhand Battenfield is a starter by trade with 121 IP over 21 GS. He’s not much for inducing whiffs though as he sports a 7.7% K-BB separation on 5.86 K/9. It looks like he will be used in relief for his brief appearance in The Show. Don’t invest in redraft.
I have a steadfast policy about Atlanta hitting prospects: Buy now and ask question later. Vaughn Grissom might be on the Michael Harris path, also known as the Harris Plan. Essentially how the Harris Plan works is Grissom gets a surprising call up to the majors, plays really well the rest of the way and forces the Braves to keep him in the lineup for good. It’s not an overly complicated strategy, but it’s effective. Grissom’s debut in Fenway Wednesday indicates he plans to initiate the Harris Plan. Cranking a tater and stealing a bag in your debut is straight plagiarism from the Harris profile. Grissom was recently moved up from Single-A. He only had 98 PA at Double-A before he was promoted to Atlanta! It’s wise to be patient with rookies, but I would posit that you can be more assertive with rookie hitters over pitchers just because pitching is so damn hard. With the H2H playoffs looming and roto managers more desperate to gain ground in the standings, Grissom is a risk worth taking. I will try to add him in 14-teamers and deeper to start.
George Kirby seemed like the ideal candidate for innings restriction over the final quarter lap of 2022. Then word came out from MLB Mariners reporter Daniel Kramer Chris Flexen would be moved to the bullpen while Kirby remained in the rotation for his start Friday in Texas. Kirby has struck out 81 hitters while only walking 11 in 79.1 IP. I had a serious conundrum in my “8 keep forever H2H categories 14 team 5×5 with OBP instead of AVG” home league. We can stream pitchers since we have a short four-player bench and I like to have one roster spot that is an instant drop to make sure I have the flexibility to add one player for hitting or pitching needs as they arise. I didn’t know who to drop though to make room for that space between Josiah Gray, Nick Lodolo, Jesús Luzardo and George Kirby. It was a painful decision, but I had to cut Gray after the recent streak of horrendous starts he had been on until Wednesday when he only gave up 2 ER. Isn’t that typical? At the moment of the drop five days ago it was pretty clear that Gray would see the more consistent playing time over Kirby. Now I feel fortunate that Kirby will hopefully be relied upon frequently over the remainder of 2022. He’s had a couple hiccups along the way, but his 3.3% BB rate is the best in MLB for pitchers with 70 or more IP this year. He’s obviously a keeper, but do not abandon Kirby in redraft this season.
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Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
I’ve been patient with this stellar hitter so it was pleasing to see him crank a yambo at Chavez Ravine Wednesday night. Jorge Polanco hadn’t hit a dong since July 16, and I was starting to grow impatient as I kept in my lineup day after day and week after week. In my home league I intentionally held on to him as the trade deadline passed because I expect his best performance over the final two months of 2022.
Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh Pirates
Will the Pirates finally pull their heads out of the dark recesses of this planet to give Roansy Contreras some more MLB seasoning? Clearly he is being manipulated to preserve their control over him so they can prolong free agency as long as possible. Lately he’s pitched nine total innings in three appearances in the minors after the All-Star break with his last four-inning effort resulting in 9 K’s. Here’s hoping he’s back on the Pirates roster this weekend.
Tyler Naquin, New York Mets
The day Tyler Naquin was dealt to the Mets there was a collective groan emanating from Twitter. Losing out on at-bats inside Great American Ball Park is certainly worth groaning over, but I thought the Mets had made a savvy move. I admit I thought it would hurt his fantasy value. I also was expecting him to be an under the radar addition who can win the NLCS MVP if he gets hot. That may still happen, but he’s also a strong-side platoon who hit a homer Wednesday. He has a hit in every appearance he’s made for the Mets so far. In daily lineup leagues he’s worth holding onto. For weekly lineups, I see why you can’t insert him on Monday if he sits three days due to the schedule.
José Quintana, St. Louis Cardinals
If you’re unaware, I’m doing player prop videos on the FTN YouTube channel. My first video Wednesday was three MLB player props with one of them being over 3.5 Ks for José Quintana in Colorado. He cleared that easily with six. He also induced 12 whiffs with six of the coming via his CU. Quintana gets Colorado again next week. It will be at home this time in blazingly hot St. Louis. I thought Quintana was a fraud in Pittsburgh, but now as a Redbird I see him as valuable. Add him in 12-teamers and deeper.
Yu Chang, Tampa Bay Rays
Speaking of platoons, the Rays get the most use out of this term. Yu Chang was picked up from Pittsburgh on waivers in July. Depending on which platform you play on, Chang is eligible at 1B, 2B, SS or 3B. He has two dongs with three runs scored over his last three starts. He even hit third in the lineup last Saturday in Detroit. I know because I was there for Lou Whitaker’s jersey retirement ceremony. He makes for a great streamer in deeper leagues with more playing time possible since Wander Franco is out until mid-late September.
Magneuris Sierra, Los Angeles Angels
This dude is a classic example of a guy with a name who hangs around in the fantasy baseball space while not delivering any production of note. However, Magneuris Sierra did have two hits, two RBIs and two swipes in Wednesday’s win over the A’s. There is nothing I can latch onto that will provide any optimism of future returns outside of a few pilfered bags on his part. Mickey Moniak will be out for a while with a fractured left finger, so if you’re desperate for steals be my guest. I’d rather add Bubba Thompson.
J.D. Davis, San Francisco Giants
There is a long line of angry people who have gone into business with J.D. Davis only to be burned by injury or roster crunches. He’s not a Met anymore though. He’s a Giant who has three homers over his last six games, but all three dongs are off LHP (Clayton Kershaw, Kirby Snead and Sean Manaea). The Giants have Pittsburgh this weekend for three with each probable starter being a righty. As soon as a lefty comes in though, Davis can pinch-hit with authority. Look toward next week to see how many lefties are on tap. Otherwise ignore.
