Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced.
Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. 3.6
Taijuan Walker has been phenomenal throughout the season, but he is coming off of three outings of various levels of shakiness, capped by his worst start of the season where he allowed eight earned runs off of seven hits and two home runs in just one inning against the Braves. Over his last three starts, he is averaging 3.6 HR/9, but even with that, he’s just allowing a 0.78 HR/9 throughout the course of the season. Whether or not there’s something to this (tipping pitches, perhaps?), that’s hard to say, but it’s an interesting development regarding someone who has been considered one of the most consistent pitchers in 2022.
2. .512 and 242
Since July 1, no one has had a higher wOBA (.512) and wRC+ (242) against right-handed pitching than Adley Rutschman. There’s a lot to like about the rookie catcher, and he has all the tools in the world to immediately become the best-hitting catcher in baseball. There’s a lot of other underlying stats that are very supportive of this not being a fluke, including an impressive 27.5% line drive rate.
3. .494
Regression has caught up to Oakland A’s 2022 All-Star representative, Paul Blackburn. He is coming off a rough performance (which was somehow a win) in Anaheim where he allowed four solo homers over five innings. Active Angels hitters (meaning, not including guys like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon) have a .494 xwOBA (over 44 plate appearances) against Blackburn, and that’s heavily influenced by Taylor Ward’s .806 xwOBA.
4. .714 and .737
Aaron Judge has been an absolute machine against southpaws throughout the season, and that’s only improved in recent weeks. Since July 1, he has faced 24 lefties and is somehow rocking a .714 ISO and .737 wOBA, which equates to a 403 wRC+.
5. 27%
The Brewers have oddly been one of the league’s weakest teams against lefties this season. They have the fourth-highest K rate and sixth-lowest wOBA against left-handed pitching. While Jeffrey Springs isn’t a guy you’re ever too amped to roster, this could be a sneaky good spot for a guy who is coming off his best performance of the year when he struck out six while allowing no earned runs across six innings against the Tigers.
6. 1
Justin Verlander has been money in the bank when facing the Texas Rangers. He has made two starts against them this season and has allowed just one earned run over 13 innings, while striking out 16 batters (all victories). Wednesday might just be some more stat padding for his very real AL Cy Young campaign.
7. 54.2%, 15%, and 100%
The underlying numbers suggest that Sonny Gray’s formidable numbers over his last few games are somewhat questionable. Over his last two starts, Gray has allowed a 54.2% hard hit rate, 15% walk rate and has somehow stranded 100% of baserunners. You might get away with that against certain teams, but I don’t see that happening against the best team in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
