Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s MLB DFS slate.
1. The Pittsburgh Pirates have the worst K% against right-handed pitchers in all of baseball (26%)
The Pirates are a team we like to attack with pitchers, so even though Detroit Tigers starter Michael Pineda isn’t a pitcher we love using, he’s in play in this spot here. Pineda has already flashed this year in his first start as he shutout the New York Yankees for five innings. The Pirates aren’t the Yankees and Pineda is also at home for this matchup just like he was against the Yankees.
2. Kris Bubic has a 15% BB% this year
Since the start of last season, Kris Bubic’s BB% is 11%. His 15% BB% for 2022 so far is ludicrous — it’s even higher than his K% right now (13%). Bubic completed five innings for the first time this year in his last start and he also didn’t walk anyone, but he allowed two home runs. Maybe Bubic is finally getting his control to come around, but when he’s not walking guys this year he’s getting hit. The St. Louis Cardinals have eight hitters in their projected lineup with an ISO above .190 against left-handed pitchers since the start of last year. Bubic has allowed a .181 ISO to right-handed hitters since the beginning of last year. Stack the Cardinals.
(Build your MLB DFS lineup with our Optimizer!)
3. Justin Verlander leads all of baseball with a 0.69 WHIP this year
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Justin Verlander is one of the greatest pitchers of all time. He’s determined to become the Tom Brady of baseball, throwing at a high level into his 40s. Verlander is showing no signs of slowing down despite being 39 years old, looking about as good as he has since joining the Astros in 2017. He beat the Seattle Mariners once already this year shutting them out for eight innings, and now he’ll get them at home this time.
4. Lucas Giolito has an 8.71 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in four career starts against the Cubs
I still think Lucas Giolito is one of the best plays on the slate, but this one is interesting. Giolito has been fantastic this year with a 37% K% and 10% BB%. The Cubs lineup has some heavy strikeout guys in it as six hitters in their projected lineup have a K% above 25% against right-handed pitching since the start of last season. They also have some power in the lineup as they have three players with at least a .230 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of last season. It’s not enough to scare me off Giolito here, but the Cubs weirdly own him. Food for thought.
5. Freddy Peralta has a 2.75 FIP this year
There’s nothing wrong with Freddy Peralta. His FIP, xFIP (3.32), and xERA (3.95) are all under 4.00. He has a 5.00 ERA because he’s been terribly unlucky. Peralta has allowed a .333 BABIP this season (career .274 BABIP allowed) and a 63% strand rate this season (career 70% strand rate). He’s been way better than his ERA suggests and should thrive in this spot against the lowly Reds offense at home.
6. Vladimir Gutierrez has a 5.79 xFIP since the start of 2021
You don’t even want to know what his xFIP is this year (but I’ll tell you: 8.52). Vladimir Gutierrez is probably more known for his outlandish neck tattoo than his pitching acumen at this point. When stacking the Brewers here I would look to prioritize left-handed hitters, as Gutierrez has allowed a .264 ISO to left-handed hitters since the beginning of last season. Nobody on the Brewers is even $5,000 on Draftkings here so everyone is affordable, but Rowdy Tellez ($3,900) seems like a lock here with his .220 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of last year.
(More: Check out Vlad Sedler’s look at the Wednesday starting pitching slate in The Opener.)
7. Austin Gomber had a 2.09 ERA in 47.1 innings at Coors Field last year
The Washington Nationals put up 10 runs on the Rockies in Coors Field Tuesday night and are sure to be a popular stack again on Wednesday’s main slate. The only problem with that as Earl Weaver once said, momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher, and Austin Gomber has been excellent when pitching at home. The Nationals are still going to project well here as a stack, but they’ll also be very popular. The prospect of Gomber keeping the Nationals offense on ice in the first half of the game, though, is something to keep in mind. Also, how much money could be on the line for Gomber in these home starts? If he continues to pitch this well at home, the Rockies could reward him with a contract extension like they did with Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela.
