Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. Dylan Cease’s xERA this year is 2.00
Dylan Cease had a 3.91 ERA last season and has a 3.55 ERA this year, but his ERA estimators have been quite a bit better. His strikeouts have also increased from a 31% K% last year to 36% K% this year. Cease is clearly one of the best pitchers in the league now and he sets up well here pitching on the road against the Kansas City Royals, who come in 27th in all of baseball in runs scored with 121. He’s very expensive, though, at $10,200 on Draftkings.
2. Kansas City Royals hitters are last in baseball in strikeouts with 242 this year
While the Royals don’t have the most imposing lineup from a run scoring or power perspective, they can still be a nuisance for opposing starting pitchers in DFS. The lack of strikeouts in the Royals lineup could certainly put a dent in Cease’s strikeout upside in this matchup. He’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, so something’s gotta give, but it’s worth keeping in mind when building lineups.
3. Since the beginning of 2021, James Kaprielian has a 27% K% and 5% BB% against right-handed batters
His ISO allowed to right-handed batters in that time is just .152 compared to .220 against left-handed batters. The Twins lineup is mostly right-handed and only offers Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler in the way of left-handed power bats. James Kaprielian will also be pitching at home here in a big pitchers’ park in Oakland. The Twins are slight favorites in this game, but their implied team run total is under four runs here. Kaprielian is one of my favorite pitchers on Tuesday’s slate at $7,700 on DraftKings.
4. José Berríos has a 4.85 ERA at home this year
José Berríos has allowed 11 earned runs combined over his last two starts and while both of those starts came on the road, he hasn’t been much better pitching at home this season. The Blue Jays are decent favorites here at -145 and Berrios has been pitching around five innings in most of his starts, but his numbers are just bad this year. He has a 7.37 xERA and 5.59 xFIP. The Mariners lineup doesn’t have much left-handed power, but Berríos has been awful against left-handed batters this year with a 10% K%, 9% BB%, .224 ISO allowed, and 45% fly ball percentage. As a decent favorite and priced at $7,800, Berríos makes sense on paper, but he’s still tough to trust right now.
5. Dylan Bundy has a 3.46 xERA this season
Dylan Bundy’s ERA is 5.76 after getting absolutely torched in his last two starts as he allowed 17 earned runs combined. On the season overall, he’s been okay as he has a 4.32 xFIP, 20% K% and 4% BB%. Those numbers aren’t hateful, and the Oakland Athletics lineup isn’t the type of powerhouse we need to worry about torching Bundy here again. The Twins are slight favorites in this game at -120 and Bundy gets a park upgrade going to Oakland. He’s a little expensive at $8,500 on Draftkings, but this isn’t exactly a deep pitching slate, and he shouldn’t carry high rostership at all.
6. Chad Kuhl has a 4.29 xFIP this year
Once again, the San Francisco Giants are playing at Coors Field and project like one of the best stacks on the slate. In Chad Kuhl’s last start, he faced the Giants in San Francisco and allowed five earned runs in 4.2 innings. The Giants were going to be popular no matter what on this slate, but if people are looking at that it might only add to their rostership. The only problem with the Giants stack is that Kuhl is here to ruin it. He’s the fly in the ointment. In each of his two starts at Coors Field this season, Kuhl has completed six innings, allowed no more than three earned runs and struck out at least four batters. Perhaps he can keep another chalky stack in check here once again.
7. Reid Detmers threw a no-hitter with only two strikeouts in his last start
Monday night, Noah Syndergaard failed to even make it out of the first inning pitching against the Rangers in Texas. Reid Detmers has that same matchup after throwing a no-hitter with 25 balls in play in his last start. Good luck repeating that anytime soon. Detmers has a 5.03 xFIP on the season, which is worse than Syndergaard, and a 17% K%, which is the same as Syndergaard. Detmers is left-handed so it’s not totally the same matchup, but it’s similar. The Rangers offense is solid despite a slow start to the season and Detmers, like Syndergaard, isn’t striking out many batters this season. I like this Rangers stack once again at home. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Kole Calhoun, Jonah Heim and Eli White are my preferred bats.
