Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. The Detroit Tigers are dead last in runs scored with 118
The Tigers offense isn’t just bad, it’s terrible. The Tigers’ 118 runs scored this season is 28 fewer than the next-closest team. That’s right, Detroit is the worst offense in the league by nearly 30 runs after about eight weeks of baseball. Tigers hitters are also 15th in all of baseball in strikeouts. Pretty much all you need to shut down this offense is a pulse. Konnor Pilkington isn’t going to excite people on this slate as there are plenty of better pitchers available to choose from, but he’s $4,000 on DraftKings here. He’s made three appearances out of the bullpen for the Guardians, but his last appearance was a start against the Toronto Blue Jays where he struck out six in just 3.2 innings. While you’re definitely looking for Pilkington to go at least five innings against the Tigers tonight, he did throw 83 pitches in that start against Toronto. 83 pitches are enough to where we could potentially expect him to eclipse 100 pitches in this outing, but against the Tigers 83 pitches could be plenty for Pilkington to hit value here.
2. Patrick Corbin’s xFIP is 4.45
Patrick Corbin hasn’t been particularly good this season. He’s 0-7 in nine starts and has a 6.60 ERA. His FIP is 4.70, though, and his xFIP is actually decent at 4.45. Facing the Colorado Rockies away from Coors Field, I think Corbin is usable as a cheap value SP2 on DraftKings at $5,900. The Rockies figure to put out a lineup with mostly right-handed hitters here as most teams do against Corbin, but he’s been solid against right-handed batters this year with a 20% K% and 7% BB%. Corbin has faced the Rockies recently and even though that start was in Coors Field he was able to complete eight innings while allowing three earned runs and striking out three with no walks. He’s not someone to make a habit of using in our DFS lineups this year, but I think Corbin is usable in this matchup.
3. Aaron Nola has 64 strikeouts this season, sixth in baseball
Aaron Nola has struck out at least six batters in each of his last six starts. His last two starts have been against the Dodgers, and he recorded 17 strikeouts combined in those two outings. Facing off against an Atlanta Braves offense that could have as many as eight hitters with at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching this season, the strikeouts from Nola should be plentiful once again. The Braves’ lineup is likely to be without superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. once again, which only strengthens Nola’s case as the best pitching play on the slate.
4. Shohei Ohtani has a career 2.20 ERA at home
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Shohei Ohtani has fairly large home and road splits when he’s pitching. His career ERA at home is 2.20 in 122.2 innings compared to 4.89 in 99.1 innings on the road. Maybe there’s no real reason for this split and it will even out over the rest of his career, but for whatever the reason so far, he’s certainly had more success on the mound at home. He’s pitching at home here against the Toronto Blue Jays, who shockingly find themselves 25th in baseball in runs scored entering play Thursday. All-Star slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has struggled mightily of late — this May has been one of the worst months he’s had in his career. The Toronto lineup should have at least five hitters with a K% above 20% against right-handed pitching this season, but Ohtani has big-time strikeout upside against anyone as he has a 34% K% this season.
5. Frankie Montas has a 3.41 xFIP
Frankie Montas has been good this year. His ERA is 3.55 and he has a 27% K% and 6% BB%. However, he has a decent split against left-handed batters this year. Against lefties, Montas’ K% is just 22% and his BB% is 8% while allowing a .172 ISO compared to a 33% K%, 4% BB%, and .105 ISO against right-handed hitters this season. The Texas Rangers should throw a mostly left-handed hitting lineup at Montas here with Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun, Jonah Heim, Nathaniel Lowe and Brad Miller all available. Montas is still one of the best pitching plays on this slate, but due to the lefties in the Rangers lineup I certainly prefer Nola and Ohtani here.
6. Martín Pérez has a 1.64 ERA
The season’s not over, and it’s only been eight starts for Martín Pérez, but this is the first time his ERA has been under 4.50 since 2016. Pérez still mostly is the same pitcher he’s always been, he’s just allowed a low BABIP (.273 compared to his career .311 BABIP) and hasn’t allowed any home runs yet this season. Pérez’ 19% K% and 6% BB% are almost identical to the numbers he put up last season, when his BABIP was .336, his HR/FB% was 16%, his WHIP was 1.50 and his ERA was 4.74. He’s been getting lucky this season in addition to potentially a legitimate improvement in his ground ball percentage as he has a 55% GB% this year. Even though luck has been on his side all season, Pérez is still a decent pitcher, and the Athletics lineup is a great matchup. Oakland is 26th in all of baseball in runs scored this year and has six hitters in their projected lineup with at least a 20% K% against left-handed pitching this season. At $8,300 on DraftKings, I definitely have interest in Pérez, who should be lower rostered than the top three starters mentioned above.
7. Michael Wacha has a 5.26 xFIP
Michael Wacha has 1.76 ERA on the season, but he’s been getting even luckier than Pérez. Wacha has an 18% K% and 11% BB% this season, but he’s been solid against right-handed batters with a 20% K% and 6% BB% against right-handed batters this season. That should play to his advantage against a mostly right-handed hitting White Sox lineup, but I still like the White Sox as a stack here as one of the top stacks on the slate. Left-handed hitters like Yasmani Grandal and Gavin Sheets should be priorities here against Wacha, who has allowed a .200 ISO and has a 16% K% and 16% BB% against left-handed hitters this year. Tim Anderson, AJ Pollock and José Abreu would be the other Chicago bats I’d use to round out the stack.
