Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. 95.8 mph was Zack Wheeler’s average fastball velocity in his last start
That’s a full tick down from the 97 mph average fastball velocity he had last year, but it’s also better than what he had in his first two starts this season (95 and 94.2 respectively). While Zack Wheeler’s fastball isn’t quite what it was last year, he did show improvement in his last start and his price also isn’t what it was last year as he’s $8,300 on Draftkings against the Colorado Rockies away from Coors Field here. He’s my favorite pitcher on the slate.
2. Nick Martinez has a 6.38 xFIP in three starts this year
Nick Martinez has a 4.30 ERA this year, but he’s been giving up lots of power as he’s allowed five home runs combined in his last two starts and has allowed an ISO greater than .300 to both right-handed and left-handed hitters this year. The Reds are one of my favorite stacks on the slate and their cheap pricing on Draftkings only makes them more enticing. I think Tommy Pham ($2,700), Jonathan India ($3,200), Tyler Naquin ($2,900) and Joey Votto ($2,800) should be prioritized while Jake Fraley ($2,200) and Nick Senzel ($2,600) are the other usable pieces.
3. Bruce Zimmermann has a 1.20 ERA this year
The New York Yankees exploded for 12 runs Tuesday night but still find themselves in the middle of the pack in runs as they’re 14th in all of baseball with 75 runs scored. People like to stack the Bronx Bombers given all the power in their lineup, but I think I like them better against right-handed pitching as opposed to a lefty like Bruce Zimmermann given that lefties Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo are bigger power threats against right-handed pitching. Zimmermann’s 1.20 ERA is somewhat supported by a 3.27 xFIP. He’s certainly been better than he was last year and with a 27% K% and 8% BB% he might be an interesting pitcher this season if he keeps it up. Not using him in this matchup of course, but something to consider before you automatically stack the Yankees.
4. Freddy Peralta has allowed a .387 BABIP and has a 58% strand rate this year
Freddy Peralta has been super unlucky so far this year as he has a 7.50 ERA, but his xERA is 4.96 and his FIP and xFIP are below 4.00. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 21st in the league with 66 runs scored this season and have five hitters with at least a 26% K% in their projected lineup. I really have no problem rolling out Peralta here at $7,700 on Draftkings despite the ugly surface stats.
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5. The Seattle Mariners are seventh in all of baseball with 87 runs scored
The Tampa Bay Rays are throwing a bullpen game Thursday with Corey Kluber starting Friday. The Rays have had some success recently with those — they no-hit the Boston Red Sox through nine innings using a bullpen game last weekend, but the Red Sox lineup hasn’t been off to a strong start this season, and the same can’t be said of the Mariners. In other words, I expect Seattle to take advantage here. Their outfielders are fairly cheap on Draftkings as Julio Rodríguez ($3,000), Jarred Kelenic ($3,300) and Jesse Winker ($4,600) are all less than Eugenio Suárez ($5,000) and Ty France ($5,600).
6. Tyler Mahle had a 5.63 ERA at home last year
Tyler Mahle is a promising pitcher for sure — his ERA was 2.30 on the road last year. But he’s having a rough go of it through four starts this year as his ERA is 6.88. He’s been unlucky as his xERA is 2.97 and his FIP and xFIP are both under 4.00, but he clearly doesn’t have everything figured out yet and he struggles at home. Mahle allowed a .213 ISO to right-handed hitters last year and Manny Machado had a .215 ISO against right-handed pitching last year making him a priority in Padres stacks and an interesting one-off.
7. The Kansas City Royals are last in all of baseball in runs with 52
Michael Kopech is in a great spot here against the Royals. While the game isn’t in Kansas City (so he can’t enjoy the authentic barbecue), it’s still a great matchup. The Royals offense is at the bottom of the league in runs and while they were able to push across six runs against the White Sox with Dallas Keuchel on the mound, Dylan Cease had little trouble posting a quality start and nine strikeouts Wednesday afternoon. Kopech is certainly closer to Cease in class and he’s my favorite spend-up option on the slate.
