Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | TNF Props | Anytime Touchdowns
Chris Meaney
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Monday’s DFS slate.
1. Arizona has a league-high 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
The Diamondbacks have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball (25%) and the highest rate against RHP (26%). Pablo López has 23 strikeouts in 23 innings and 15 in his last two starts (13 IP). He’s projected for the most strikeouts in our Strikeout Model. He’s only allowed one run on 13 hits over his four starts (0.39 ERA). Lopez has a 2.34 ERA in 65.1 innings at home in 2021.
2. Tyler Wells has a 53.2 FB% for his career.
Tyler Wells’ fly ball rate is only at 44% this season, but he had a 56.6% mark in 2021, which led to nine homers in 57 innings. He’s already served up three home runs and eight runs in 13 innings. Three of his four starts have come on the road. This one won’t, which isn’t great news for the righty. All nine of the home runs Wells allowed last season came at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. He surrendered 23 runs in 33.1 home innings, compared to three runs in 23.2 road innings. Right-handed batters hit eight of those nine bombs against Wells last season. They had the higher fly ball rates, hard-hit rates, better slugging percentages and wOBA. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco are on home-run watch tonight.
3. Jake Odorizzi has the highest ERA on the slate.
Jake Odorizzi has coughed up 10 runs and has a 9:8 K:BB ratio over 15 innings of work. His ERA sits at 6.00 and his xFIP is 5.79. Odorizzi’s 8.6 SwStr% and 81.7% contact rate is the lowest it’s been since 2013. Keep in mind, Odorizzi has a 45% fly ball rate for his career (16 HR allowed in 104.2 innings last season). Julio Rodríguez went deep yesterday. Look for him to make it two in a row.
4. Ross Stripling has the highest projected ISO on the slate.
According to our MLB Strikeout Model, Ross Stripling has the highest projected ISO (.265) and projected ERA (4.58). Stripling has yet to allow a home run this season after giving up 23 over 101.1 innings last season. The Blue Jays pitcher allowed 11 at home last season and was torched by RHB: .270/308/.520 with a .347 wOBA. Sixteen of the 23 home runs he allowed were to RHB. The Yankees are throwing out seven of them tonight, including Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson. The Yankees have the second-highest team implied total on the slate. Stripling’s career-best 52% GB is something to keep an eye on, but I’m not buying it.
5. Right-handed hitters are slashing .298/.365/.638 against Marco Gonzales.
Right-handed hitters have a very strong .437 wOBA against Marco Gonzales this season. All four of the home runs the Mariners lefty has allowed have been to righties, and the Houston Astros have a ton of appealing RHH. Alex Bregman slashed .300/.397/.442 against LHP last season and .313/.401/.568 for his career (.404 wOBA & 161 wRC+). The Astros have the highest team implied total on the slate.
6. The Athletics have the highest strikeout rate in the game.
Oakland is striking out 26.1% of the time, which makes Drew Rasmussen an interesting target. The Rays righty has 18 punchouts in 18 innings and a solid 14.6 SwStr% (top-10 mark). He fanned nine Mariners over six innings in his last outing. Rasmussen is a strikeout per inning guy over his 109.1 career innings, so he should be able to rack up 5-7 in this start. The A’s have the fifth-lowest team wOBA and a bottom 10 ISO.
7. Chris Bassitt has allowed three or fewer hits in three of his four starts.
We have a terrific pitching matchup in New York tonight between Chris Bassitt and Max Fried. Fried is a tad cheaper, but I think Bassitt has the better matchup. Both matchups are tough, but the Braves are striking out the ninth-most vs. RHP (24%) and have the highest swinging-strike percentage in the league (13.1%). Bassitt had a career high 10.1 SwStr% last season and is at 12% this year. Right-handed hitters are slashing .077/.143/.077 with a .114 wOBA against Bassitt. It’s unsustainable, but the Braves are throwing seven righties against Bassitt.
