Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s 13-game slate DFS slate.
1. The Pirates’ 26.2 K% vs. LHP is the second-highest mark in the game
That’s great news for Carlos Rodón, who has a 1.76 ERA (fourth lowest) at home. Rodon ranks fourth in K/9 (11.29) and fifth in K% (31.3). He has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his eight starts and he’s only surrendered two in his last four starts (24 innings). Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom five in wOBA and ISO against southpaws.
2. Antonio Senzatela leads baseball with an 84.8% contact rate
Antonio Senzatela has been able to keep it in check at home for the most part (4.02 ERA), but he has a league high .316 opponents’ batting average and .394 on-base percentage at Coors Field. No surprise, considering Senzatela pitches in Colorado. Lefties are slashing .337/.390/.479 against him and righties .365/.385/.553. Daulton Varsho has a team-high 68 hits against RHP and Ketel Marte leads Arizona in total bases over the last 30 days with 41. Marte enters Friday on a six-game hit streak, and he’s driven in six RBI over that span. Christian Walker leads the team with 20 bombs against RHP.
3. Cal Quantrill has an 83.6% contact rate
Only Senzatela, Marco Gonzales and Madison Bumgarner have a higher contact rate than Cal Quantrill. The Guardians’ pitcher has a 3.88 ERA but a 4.61 xFIP. He’s allowed 13 bombs in his last 12 games and has failed to strike out more than four batters in a 11 of those outings. He only has 79 K’s in 123 innings (5.78 K/9), and he’s coughed up at least six hits in 10 of his past 14 starts. Quantrill’s a good bet to allow a lot of contact and maybe even a home run or two. He has a 4.96 ERA on the road where opponents are slashing .314/.373/.469. He struggled against right-handed hitters as well and the Blue Jays have several solid righties in their lineup. In fact, they enter Friday with a league-best .267 AVG vs RHP (second in wOBA).
4. The Angels have a league-high 26.9 K% against right-handed pitchers
Los Angeles ranks first in strikeout percentage (26%), but they swing and miss more against righties. Tyler Mahle struggled in his first start as a member of the Twins, but it came against a strong Blue Jays squad. He has a much better matchup against the Angels, who rank dead last in average over the last 30 days (.212). Over that span, Los Angeles checks in 27th in wOBA (.275), wRC+ (77), OBP (.280), SLG (.349) and OPS (.629). Mahle has a strong 9.71 K/9, 3.96 xFIP and 11.3 SwStr%. He had a sub-4 ERA on the road and the third highest at home (4.86), so the move away from Cincinnati should help.
5. José Berríos has a league-high 11.7% barrel rate
José Berríos couldn’t make it out of the fourth inning in his return to Minnesota last week. He coughed up five runs on six hits over 3.2 innings. He gave up two more home runs to bring his total to 24 on the season, which ranks second to Josiah Gray. Berríos has served up a home run in six straight games and he’s surrendered 14 in his past 10 games. He only struck out one batter in that start against Minnesota and he’s had six outings this season where he’s had one or zero strikeouts. One of those outings came in his only start against Cleveland. Not only did he strike out zero batters in his outing against the Guardians they scored six runs on eight hits over 4.2 innings. They could make for a sneaky stack as Berríos hasn’t made many batters miss this season (81.2 contact %)
6. Nathan Eovaldi has a 6.81 ERA at home
Nathan Eovaldi has only tossed 35.2 innings at home, but he’s coughed up 10 homers over that span. Opponents are slashing .320/.352/.582 with a .397 wOBA against Eovaldi at Fenway Park compared to .224/.253/.390 against him on the road. The Red Sox’s pitcher has allowed 42 hits, 26 runs and nine homers in his last six starts at home. The Yankees lead MLB in home runs on the season (190) and in the last 30 days (44).
7. The Cardinals lead baseball with a .343 wOBA and .347 OBP vs. LHP
St. Louis ranks second in wRC+ (126) and OPS (793), and third in average (.271) against southpaws. Paul Goldschmidt has six home runs, 10 doubles and a ridiculous .447 average against lefties. Nolan Arenado leads the team with eight home runs against left-handed pitchers. Eric Lauer’s had strong moments this season, but he’s allowed at least three walks in four straight starts. He’s also served up 12 homers in his past 10 games. Lauer has a 4.47 ERA on the road compared to 2.65 at home.
