Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced.
Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Friday’s DFS slate.
1. 1
Seems fitting, right? This is the number of walks Aaron Nola has issued in June. A single walk. Further, he gets a matchup with a punchless Padres lineup that, outside of Jake Cronenworth, will offer very little resistance, further exacerbated by Manny Machado’s injury. It’s not just losing Machado, it’s the lack of experience of the depth pieces in the Padres organization that will make for calm waters for Nola to navigate. There should be a number of strikeouts for Nola to find, and he should have no trouble working deep into the game.
This is our No. 1 piece of info, Nola has only 1 walk this month, and Nola should be your No. 1 SP for DFS purposes on Friday’s evening’s slate.
2. 11.2%
This is Zack Greinke’s K% so far this season, one of the lowest you’ll see for a starting pitcher (or any kind of pitcher in MLB), let alone a former All-Star like Greinke. He’s got as soft a matchup as one can have Friday with the A’s — of course, they are an awful team on the whole, but they are not without the random streak of power that could get to a pitcher that struggles to strike anyone out.
Along with the lack of strikeouts, Greinke has also been particularly susceptible to the long ball lately. With 5 home runs allowed in his last two starts, as well as a hard contact rate over 30% in each of those starts (against the Diamondbacks and Twins no less, not teams thought of as particularly dangerous), Greinke is clearly showings some signs of weakness.
It would be an extremely low-rostered stack, but even as a cheap, ancillary piece to your main stack, the A’s offense could be an interesting salary-saving option that allows you to pay up for both Nola and your primary stack. Worth mentioning that the game total of 9.5 is tied for the highest on the slate.
3. 7.8%
This is Mitch Keller’s soft contact rate in June. He’s also seen a corresponding massive increase in line drive rate — people are hitting the ball hard against him and in a manner that usually results in hits. For all of the hullabaloo about Keller’s increase in velocity, the results just have extremely not been there.
The Rays offense might not be the ideal one to take advantage of Keller’s struggles, and the Trop might not be ideal venue for offense, but like the A’s, the Rays can be a source of cheap production to fill in spots against an awful pitcher. Isaac Paredes homered thrice in a matchup against Nestor Cortes earlier this week, and then again against Jordan Montgomery the next day, so he appears to be seeing the ball well and is only $3,400 on DK. Similarly, Vidal Bruján is showing signs of life, and is only $3K with MPE at 2B and OF. We will want to see a lineup come out though, as the Rays can get a bit wonky in this regard.
4. 33%
This is Chris Flexen’s ground ball rate, which is second lowest in all of MLB. He’s also in the top 15 in hard contact rate allowed. So lots of balls in the air and hit well — Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh should be able to absolutely tee off here. Flexen is often a pitcher to target hitters against, but with the Angels struggles in general and particularly on offense, they might not be top of mind in terms of stacks to use, especially on such a large slate. Hopefully we can utilize them at lower rostership than is deserving.
5. 23.8%
This is the Brewers’ K% against RHP, and they face a starter in Alek Manoah who comes into this one with a higher reputation for strikeouts than his actual production, but the upside is there. The Brewers are sort of middle of the road, but against a power arm like Manoah they may struggle — and with Manoah’s pricing in between the absolute top tier and what are likely going to be some of the better value arms on the slate, he’s probably going to be overlooked here. He is also on one of the few teams that benefit from a ballpark upgrade going from his home park to Milwaukee.
6. 59
That is the Rangers’ league-leading stolen base total, although the hard-charging Marlins (led by SB extraordinaire Jon Berti) are now not far behind with 56. The Rangers get a plush matchup Friday in Paolo Espino and, in addition to their proclivity for theft, might also be able to put up some power numbers. This game total is not far off the Royals/A’s and Mariners/Angels at a 9 O/U, so Vegas is expecting a thriving offensive environment as well.
While you can never expect/predict stolen bases quite as well as you can other types of offensive impact, targeting an environment where the offense is aggressive like the Rangers will set you up for success more often than not.
7. 33.3%
This is Justin Verlander’s hard contact rate in his last three starts. It is likely that folks will shy away from using Yankees stacks in this one. The game total is low, and Verlander is a brand name, and people might actually be using Verlander as their SP1 — he is the top-priced SP on the slate. But man has he been getting smacked around lately, even against the struggling White Sox in his last start wherein he gave up 9 hits and 7 runs and didn’t get through 4 innings. Yes, Verlander has had an amazing career, and has made a ton of money, and still flashes dominance at times, but against the Yankees in the bandbox of Yankee stadium, I’m far more likely to stack against him that to deploy him as my SP1.
