Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the four stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s three-game late DFS slate.
1. Yordan Alvarez has 11 home runs against RHP
Yordan Alvarez has a league-high 11 bombs against right-handed pitchers this season. He may add to that number Thursday, as he’ll see pitches from the Rangers’ Glenn Otto. Otto has coughed up 16 hits and 10 walks in his 18.1 innings. When you’re walking 4.91 batters per nine innings, you can get in trouble in a hurry. The Astros don’t strike out, they take their walks, and they have a lot of power. Otto has served up a homer in three straight games and four in his last three starts.
2. Zac Gallen has allowed two hits or fewer in four of his six starts
Zac Gallen has been fantastic to start the season, entering Thursday with a 1.05 ERA. He gets the Cubs for the second straight start, and he made it look easy last week. Gallen allowed a solo home run and one other hit over six innings. He struck out a season-high nine batters — he’s had at least seven strikeouts in three of his past five starts. He’s been a bit lucky, and this run is unsustainable (3.37 xFIP), but he has the highest upside on the slate with only six pitchers on the board. The Cubs are striking out a league-high 25.6% of the time vs. RHP.
3. The Red Sox have three hitters inside the top 10 in hits vs. RHP
Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers are tied for the second-most hits against right-handed pitchers this season (37). They are just two behind Ty France of the Seattle Mariners, who will see pitches from lefty Rich Hill in the same game. J.D. Martinez’s 33 hits against righties are tied for the eighth most. Devers is a strong play Thursday, as he leads baseball with 22 hits (.458 AVG) over the past 14 days. George Kirby is making his third big-league start and second on the road. His second outing on the road in New York against the Mets didn’t work out that well for him: 4 IP, 3 H, 3 R (1 ER), 1 K. He certainly has some swing and miss in his game and the command is strong, but the Red Sox are a strong stack. Devers also leads baseball with 41 total bases over the last two weeks.
4. Glenn Otto has the highest projected ISO and ERA on the main slate.
According to our MLB Strikeout Model, Otto has a projected 0.282 ISO and 4.83 ERA Thursday, which is by far the highest on the three-game slate. I mentioned Yordan Alvarez as a home run call up top, but consider Jose Altuve as well. The Astros’ second baseman has a league-best six bombs over the past two weeks.
