Crossovers & Cross-Offs: Trending Fantasy Baseball Performers (4/10)

While we’re only around two weeks into the 2024 regular season, it’s never too early to dive into data for players who are off to hot or cold starts to the season. Are the performances for real? Fluky? Should you buy in? Be concerned? Hopefully, all those questions will be answered in this weekly column throughout the season.

In the first installment of Crossovers & Cross-Offs this week, I’m breaking down a six-pack of players off to hot or cold starts this season including a former top prospect and two players with top-100 ADPs this season.

Who’s Hot… 

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Bostn Red Sox

There aren’t many hotter hitters than Tyler O’Neill through the first two weeks of the season. In 41 plate appearances, O’Neill has already cranked six home runs with a .344/.488/.906 slash line and 13 runs scored. If you read or listened to my work this offseason, you’d have seen or heard me preach to buy low in dynasty leagues and/or draft him at his very reasonable ADP this spring. Those who did have to be absolutely ecstatic about the early results so far.

Is O’Neill going to hit like Barry Bonds or Babe Ruth all season? Probably not. But this early season surge isn’t fluky either. O’Neill improved his walk, strikeout and contact rates in 2022 and 2023 despite the subpar surface stats, and those improvements have stuck and continued this season. O’Neill currently sports a 17.1% walk rate, 19.5% strikeout rate, 87% zone contact rate, 19% chase rate and 19.4% whiff rate. All while still having elite quality of contact metrics.

I’m not sure the metrics I mentioned above stick to that level, but it’s clear O’Neill is a different hitter now than he was back in 2021 or even in 2022-2023 for that matter. If he can stay healthy, O’Neill should easily be able to return top-100 value this season and maybe even top-50. He’s a perfect fit in Fenway Park.

Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees

Despite racking up 21 home runs and 24 steals as a rookie, many considered Anthony Volpe’s rookie campaign to be a bit underwhelming once you factored in the .209/.283/.383 slash line. That will do more damage to your eyes than looking directly into a solar eclipse without those fancy schmancy glasses…

While Volpe’s average did trend down in the minors as he progressed up the organizational ladder, it was very clear that this wasn’t a guy that was going to continue hitting .209 moving forward. Volpe’s contact rates were slightly below average, but not indicative of a .209 hitter. And this season, he’s made strides early on that have me encouraged.

Through his first 46 plate appearances, Volpe is slashing .375/.444/.600 with two home runs and three steals. But what I’ve been the most impressed by are the improvements outlined below.

I’m not expecting a jump in the power department, but we could continue seeing Volpe settle into the 20- to 25-homer range with 25-plus steals and an average more in the .250-.270 range moving forward. If that happens, he’s a top-50 player overall. 

Ronel Blanco, SP, Houston Astros

Who had Ronel Blanco throwing the first no-hitter of 2024 and allowing only one hit in 15 innings through his first two starts? Anyone who just raised their hands needs to stop, drop and roll, because your pants are on fire.

Honestly, I don’t think there’s been this big of a sell high since Chris Shelton in 2006. Remember him? While Blanco has a pristine 0.00 ERA and 0.47 WHIP on the surface, he also has a 4.59 xFIP, 9.7% K-BB rate, and a .029 BABIP. Yeah, the regression monster is going to wreak havoc on Blanco like Cookie Monster with a plate of warm chocolate chip cookies right out of the oven.

I’m not saying Blanco is going to dart back into his shell and return to waiver wire fodder, but he’s probably more of a back-end fantasy arm than an impact one moving forward. Sell high if you can.

Who’s Not…

Jesús Luzardo, SP, Miami Marlins

Is there any more frustrating arm to roster than Jesús Luzardo? At times, he looks like an ace, but those sexy peaks are often followed by ugly valleys as we’ve witnessed this season already. Through three starts this season, Luzardo has a 7.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP along with a 13.8% walk rate. He’s still striking out batters at a solid 26.2% clip, but that’s hardly a silver lining in a rough start to the season.

Obviously, Luzardo isn’t this bad. His velocity and pitch usage are similar to last season, and as I mentioned, he’s still missing bats. However, the biggest issues right now have been the walk rate spiking from 7.4% to 13.8% and overall spotty fastball command on both his four-seamer and sinker.

For 2024, I’d buy low on Luzardo. But at the same time, I also believe we need to stop valuing him as highly as we have over the last few years. He’s probably more of a top-30 or top-35 SP than a top-25 SP.

Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Kansas City Royals

After missing the final two-thirds of last season, it’s not uncommon for a player to need a bit of time to shake off the rust and return to previous form. That’s exactly what we’re seeing right now with “Italian Breakfast” Vinnie Pasquantino. As of now, Pasquantino has yet to record an extra-base hit in 42 plate appearances this season and is slashing .108/.214/.108. I’m not pressing the panic button though.

When you pop the hood, there are plenty of encouraging metrics happening behind the scenes. Pasquantino is currently running a 93.5% zone contact rate, 13.5% whiff rate, and has as many walks as strikeouts thus far. The elite contact/approach profile is still there and has even slightly improved from 2022 and 2023. However, as one can expect with shoulder injuries, Pasquantino’s power has yet to fully return. 

With that said, Pasquantino has posted an 88.6 mph AVG EV and 111.6 mph MAX EV, so his power hasn’t been completely zapped. But a lot of his BBE have been into the ground with a 53.1% groundball rate so far.

I’d remain patient here with Vinnie P and even buy low given the very reasonable price tag right now. It probably won’t happen overnight, but I’m expecting greener pastures and brighter skies ahead for Pasquantino as we get further into the 2024 season.

Nolan Jones, OF, Colorado Rockies

For those who invested a top-70 pick on Nolan Jones after he posted a 20/20 season last year in just 424 plate appearances, the early returns are probably leaving a sour taste in fantasy managers’ mouths. In 52 plate appearances, Jones is slashing just .174/.269/.261 with one steal and a big, fat goose egg in the home run column. When digging into the profile, it’s a mixed bag right now with one glaring concern, but also a few positives to be encouraged about.

The cause for concern right now is the 38.5% strikeout rate. Jones has usually run a higher strikeout rate, but this is up 8.8% from last season. However, this higher strikeout rate isn’t due to a higher whiff or chase rate as those sit at 20.8% and 26.7% respectively. Instead, Jones has been too patient this season, even more than usual, and it has put him into too many deep counts. Jones currently has a 13.5% first-pitch swing rate and 35.9% overall swing rate, both of which are well below league average.

Now for the positives. In addition to Jones’ improved whiff and chase rates, he’s also seen his zone contact rate rise 5.1%, AVG EV rise 2.2 mph, and hard-hit rate rise 12.5%. 

While he’s going to need to be more aggressive at the plate, which is 100% tied to a hitter’s personal philosophy and approach, there are plenty of metrics to be encouraged by right now. I’m not overly concerned with Jones right now and would look to invest moving forward.