Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Tuesday 9/5)

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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Seattle Mariners @ Cincinnati Reds

Mariners -154 @ Reds +130 – Total 10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Reds are tied for the final Wild Card spot in the National League, but illnesses and injuries have depleted their rotation. With eight starters unavailable, the Reds turn to rookie Connor Phillips, who makes his MLB debut against one of the hottest offenses in the Show.

Seattle has the third-best wRC+ versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days at 132 (32% above league average). The M’s rank second in wOBA and home runs and top-five in runs, OBP and slugging percentage. The Mariners do a great job of lifting the ball, as they have one of the highest fly ball percentages and one of the lowest ground ball percentages in the league. Their 10% barrel percentage ranks third-best in baseball. Seattle has scored the seventh-most runs per game on the road this season at 4.97.

Phillips toes the rubber for Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park. The 22-year-old will have to deal with some great hitting conditions along with facing this tough Seattle lineup. The righty has only pitched 40.1 innings above AA ball, but the Reds are desperate for arms. Phillips has displayed some great strikeout stuff in the minors, but walks have been an issue. He’s allowed 5.2 walks per nine innings across three minor league levels — which is a big reason why he has a career 1.41 WHIP. In AAA this season, Phillips’ has posted a 4.69 ERA, along with a 5.11 xFIP. Projection systems don’t see Phillips having much success at the MLB level this season, as Steamer the righty for a 4.82 ERA and The Bat has him for 5.40.

David Bell doesn’t have a lockdown bullpen he can turn to. The Reds bullpen sits in the middle of the pack in terms of ERA but their FIP, xFIP and SIERA all rank in the bottom 10 of the league. Over the last 14 days they’ve posted a 4.76 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 4.75 SIERA.

I’m projecting Phillips to less than five innings and surrender about three runs before giving away to the pen. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.