Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Braves -285 @ Pirates +230 — Total 9.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Cubs couldn’t get us to the window Tuesday night, dropping us to 1-1 on the week. We’re heading back to Pittsburgh to back the squad that cashed for us Monday. The Pirates are once again the largest underdog on the MLB board Wednesday night as they play the third of a four-game set against Atlanta.. Even though X-rays were negative, I don’t expect Ronald Acuña Jr. to be in the lineup after being drilled in the elbow Tuesday. You might be able to get a better number if you wait for a lineup, but I went ahead and placed my bet.
The Pirates pitching staff hasn’t done anything to slow this Braves offense down, as they’ve surrendered 14 runs in the first two games of the series. Things won’t get much better for the Pirates, as rookie Quinn Priester takes the ball for Derek Shelton. It isn’t a big sample, but through his first four starts the righty has posted an 8.69 ERA and the advanced stats aren’t much better. In 87.2 innings in AAA this season, he had a 4.31 ERA and subpar swing and miss metrics. Priester has yet to record more than 16 outs in an MLB game and hasn’t surrendered less than three runs in an outing. Priester had issues with left-handed hitters in AAA, as they posted a .269/.350/.468 slash line against him. He hasn’t had any success against them in the Show either – they’ve posted a .458 wOBA and a slash line of .333/.442./.667 against the righty. This will certainly be the toughest offense he’s faced by a wide margin in his young career.
The Braves offense isn’t showing any signs of slowing down, as they continue to lead the majors in most categories. Their 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is the best in MLB, and that number is even higher over the last 30 days at 138. Nobody in the Show has a higher wOBA (.358), hard hit percentage (46.4%), expected batting average (.271) or expected slugging percentage (.500) than Atlanta. They also lead the league in homeruns with 215, more than 30 dongs ahead of the Dodgers. The Braves 5.73 runs a game ranks third-best in MLB, behind the Dodgers and Rangers.
The Bravos should plate some runs against the rookie before the Pirates ‘pen gets involved. I’m expecting the Pirates bullpen to have to pitch about four innings Wednesday night. While their stats are decent on the season, they’ve been overtaxed lately. The Pirates bullpen has the ninth-worst SIERA at 4.11 and it sits at 4.35 over the last 14 days. Even without Acuna, Atlanta should be able to post a couple crooked numbers at PNC and get us to the window. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.
Bet
Braves TT Over 5.5 (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
