Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 8/8)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

Cubs -130 @ Mets +115 — Total 8.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)

It didn’t happen until the ninth inning, but thanks to Ozzie Albies we cashed Monday’s writeup on the Braves. We’re headed back to the team total market Tuesday evening, as the woeful Mets host the Cubs. Chicago is one of the hottest offenses in the Show and they face a righty who has been getting shelled lately. 

The Cubbies bats have been absolutely raking – they’re slashing .290/.362/.519 over the last 14 days as a team. One through nine, the Cubs are hitting better than Mike Trout, who is slashing .263/.369/.493. The Cubs’ 137 wRC+, .375 wOBA and .878 OPS in that period are second to only the Braves. Chicago actually ranks ahead of Atlanta in a few categories, including first in home runs (26) and runs (97). For the season, the Cubs average the fifth-most runs per game at 5.10 – over their last 20 games the Cubs are averaging seven runs a game. 

Carlos Carrasco has the tough task of slowing down this Chicago offense as he toes the rubber for the Mets Tuesday night. The 36-year-old is having the worst season of his career through 76.1 innings. His 6.60 ERA is fourth worst in baseball, and significant positive regression isn’t likely to be on the way. Cookie’s expected ERA is higher than his actual ERA at 6.62, and his 6.00 FIP and 5.28 SIERA aren’t much better. Over his last four starts, the veteran has posted a 12.33 ERA and 6.21 FIP, along with a 13.6% barrel%. He’s allowed 21 runs in just 15.1 innings pitched in those starts. Carrasco’s 10.7% swinging-strike percentage is the lowest he’s posted since 2013 with Cleveland, and his 90.1% zone-contact percentage is the highest of his career. For the first time since 2013, Cookie has a single digit K-BB% at 5.4% (career 18.1%). Not many pitchers are getting hit harder than the righty. His barrel rate ranks in the ninth percentile, while his hard hit rate sits in the fifth percentile. Instead of listing the rest of his horrible percentile rankings, check them out below (image via BaseballSavant):

I’m projecting Carrasco to go about five innings Tuesday and surrender three runs. Things shouldn’t get too tough for the Cubs once he departs, over the last 14 days the Mets bullpen has posted a 4.61 ERA, 4.41 SIERA and 1.49 WHIP. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Cubs TT Over 4.5 (-137, Caesars)