Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 8/2)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Minnesota Twins @ St. Louis Cardinals 

Twins -140 @ Cardinals +115 — Total 9.5 (BetMGM)

We started off the week with a winner thanks to Justin Steele cashing his strikeout prop against the Reds. Wednesday, we’re heading to Busch Stadium for an interleague matchup between two teams going in different directions. The Twins didn’t make any moves on the day of the deadline, but the Cardinals continued selling. No need to get into the details here, but the Cards dealing a couple of their best bullpen arms will only help our wager. 

Dakota Hudson has been fortunate through his first 408 MLB innings — he has a career 3.65 ERA, but all the advanced stats are significantly higher. The 28-year-old posted a career-worst 4.45 ERA in 2022 and things haven’t looked much better in 2023. Through his first seven games of the season, Hudson has a 4.19 ERA, with his expected ERA of 5.17 showing significant regression, along with his 4.78 SIERA. The righty has never been a big strikeout guy, as his K% sits well below average for his career. Not only is he unable to generate swings and misses, he has had legitimate issues with control. His career K-BB% sits in the single-digits at 5.4%. To get a good idea of why we’re fading Hudson, take a look at his 2022 percentile rankings below (image via BaseballSavant).

For the season, the Twins have been solid against right-handed pitching. Their 108 wRC+ is tied for seventh best. But over the last 30 days only two clubs have done better at the dish than the Twinkies – their offense has been smoking and has posted a 133 wRC+. Only behind the Cubs and Dodgers in that stretch. Minnesota ranks top-five or better in home runs, runs and on-base percentage in that period. The Twins swing and miss a ton but their 10.2% barrel percentage trails only the best offense in baseball in Atlanta. 

I’m projecting Hudson to struggle his way through four-plus innings Wednesday evening. Things won’t get too much tougher for the Twins once the Cardinals bullpen enters. The Cards 4.55 ERA ranks seventh worst, and they’re worse off from a talent perspective at this point. The Cardinals dealt away a handful of arms before Tuesday’s deadline, including some key bullpen pieces. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Twins TT Over 4.5 (-120, BetMGM)