Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 8/1)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

You can check out the full card at the Bet Tracker. If you’re not subscribed, join now and get 20% off using promo code DREAM.

Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Reds +142 @ Cubs -168 – Total 8.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Let’s try to finish in the green again this week, as we went 2-1 (+1x) on writeups last week. We’re heading to Wrigley Field Tuesday for a National League Central showdown, as the Cubs sit in third place, five games behind the first-place Reds. No action on either side in this one but I’ve found an edge in the strikeout market. 

Justin Steele is showing his sophomore breakout season was legit, as he’s posted a 2.97 ERA through 109.2 innings this season, with his advanced stats not showing much regression (other than his 3.87 SIERA). Steele’s K% is around league average, but his 11.5% swinging-strike percentage is the best of his young career. While he’s increased his K% by about two percent over the last month, he’s shown a great chase rate that sits in the 86th percentile for the season. The 28-year-old’s best punchout pitch has been his slider, he features it about 34% of the time, it carries a 27.8% K% and a 29.3% whiff percentage. 

No question the Reds are one of America’s favorite teams loaded with offensive talent, but that doesn’t mean they can’t rack up the K’s. For the season, the Reds’ 23.4% K% against left-handed pitching sits just outside the top 10, ranking 11th-highest. Over the last 14 days, the Reds have struggled to make contact, posting an 84.3% zone-contact percentage and a strikeout percentage of nearly 25%. The Redlegs average 9.05 strikeouts per game, which ranks 10th in the show. 

These numbers may not blow you away, but this isn’t a massive number for Steele to go over. I’m projecting Steele to pitch into the sixth inning Tuesday night and rack up the six punchouts we need to cash. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this over; as Frank projects the starter for 6.61 punchouts. As always, use the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Justin Steele Over 5.5 K’s (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)