Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 7/19)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves

Dbacks +190 @ Braves -230 – Total 10 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

I hope you cashed the Braves team total over with us Tuesday – I didn’t think it would be a sweat but I wasn’t expecting the two clubs to combine for 29 runs. The Braves put up 13 Tuesday and hopefully still have a handful of barrels left for Wednesday evening, as we’re headed back to the team total market. 

Ryne Nelson is on the bump for Arizona Wednesday night. He enters plays with the fifth-worst ERA in MLB among qualified pitchers at 4.98. Like Zach Davies, Nelson’s advanced numbers aren’t much better — he has a 4.67 FIP but a SIERA over 5.00. The 25-year-old’s xERA/xwOBA ranks in the 20th percentile and the rest of his percentile rankings aren’t any better. He’s having a tough time getting batters to swing, as his whiff rate ranks in the 10th percentile and his chase rate is in the 20th percentile. But hitters are doing damage when they do decide to hack. Nelson hasn’t had a good time on the hill when a left-hander is in the box. Lefties are slashing .287/.361/.530 with a wOBA of .378 and a 5.58 FIP (hello, Matt Olson). We should see four or five lefthanded hitters in today’s stacked Braves lineup. After last night the Dbacks are now allowing the fifth-most runs per game on the road at 5.00, as they face an incredibly deep Bravos club. 

The Braves offense has been tough to slow down as they make it incredibly difficult for opposing pitchers with such a deep lineup. Atlanta ranks second in baseball in runs per game at 5.67 and that number is a bit higher at home (5.82). The Braves’ 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching ranks third-best in the show. Over the last 30 days, nobody has been better at the plate, as their wRC+ sits at 134 over their last 704 PA. Their hard-hit rate and barrel percentage also rank at the top of MLB, at 46.1% and 12.1% respectively. This will be the Braves’ second time facing Nelson this season. They scored three runs in four-plus innings against him in Arizona but it could have been worse for the Dbacks righty. The Braves posted a 97.3% Z-Contact% in that game and hit Nelson extremely hard with a 21.1% barrel percentage and 57.9% hard-hit percentage. I’m expecting more of the same tonight. 

Even with a pitcher’s ump behind the dish, I’m projecting Nelson to struggle his way through four-plus innings Wednesday while allowing three or four runs. Atlanta should continue to put up numbers against the Dbacks’ relief arms. Frank Brank’s MLB Model agrees with this over; as Frank projects the Braves for six runs. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bets

Braves TT Over 5.5 (-122, FanDuel Sportsbook)