Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 6/14)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

Angels +115 @ Rangers -130 — Total 9.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Angels and Rangers play their third of a four-game set Wednesday in Texas, as LA has taken the first two games. After losing their last three matchups, the Rangers have fallen behind the Orioles for the third-best record in baseball, while Los Angeles has won their last three. I have an edge on a side and in the K prop market in this one.

Andrew Heaney isn’t the strikeout savant he was with the Dodgers last season, but the southpaw has done a better job missing bats over his last few starts. Heaney’s 4.14 ERA is currently the second-best mark of his career, while his K% is less than one percent lower than his career average. The lefty’s SIERA and xERA aren’t far off from his ERA – so we shouldn’t expect negative regression. Heaney was an Angel for seven seasons, and this is his first start against his former club. 

For the season Shohei Ohtani and company have posted a 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which ranks 10th in baseball. Their 21.6% K% against southpaws is 17th in MLB. However, those numbers have regressed over the last month. Since early May, the Angels’ 26.9% K% against left-handed pitching ranks fifth highest, while their 99 wRC+ sits in the bottom half of the league at 18th. 

Reid Detmers hasn’t looked like the breakout stud we saw in the second half of last season. He’s striking out more batters than he did in 2022 but his ERA is a full run lower. We should see some positive regression from the southpaw as his advanced numbers are about a run lower than his ERA but I’m not expecting the good run to begin today against this Texas lineup that has mashed lefties this season. 

Texas has the third-best wRC+ against lefties this season at 129 – 29% better than the league average. Since early May that number has gotten slightly better at 132 (tied for second with the Rays). The Rangers enter play Wednesday, leading MLB averaging 6.63 runs per game at home this season. This is going to be a tough matchup for Detmers as the Rangers have one of the lower strikeout rates against southpaws so far in 2023. 

I’m projecting Heaney to flirt with a quality start while striking out the six batters we need to cash our prop. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this over; as Frank projects Heaney for 6.17 punchouts. The Rangers should be able to put up enough runs against Detmers to pull out the win as well. While the Angels bullpen has a much better ERA than Texas’; both their FIP and SIERA are comparable. Be sure to check out FTN’s Live Odds screen to find the best number on the market and  FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best K prop number available to you.

Bets

Rangers (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Andrew Heaney Over 5.5 K’s (-137, Caesars)