Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have nearly a full slate of games Wednesday around baseball, with only the Twins and Tigers getting a midweek day off. That leads to plenty of betting opportunities around the league.
Below are some of my favorite bets from Wednesday’s slate. The odds change pretty quickly in the MLB, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
Zack Littell Over 15.5 Outs Recorded
-135, Caesars
The Rays are playing for a sixth straight day Wednesday, including a three-game series in Coors Field that will always tax a bullpen, a three-inning relief outing for Jacob Waguespack Monday and a game Tuesday that used four relievers for an inning apiece. It’s a day game Wednesday after a late game Tuesday. Translation: This bullpen is pretty gassed. An off day Thursday will help, but you can bet that the team is going to want to limit the relievers’ exposure Wednesday in the series finale against the Angels in Los Angeles.
Zack Littell has started the 2024 season hot, with 6 shutout innings against the Blue Jays and then 5 innings of one-run ball in the opener of that Rockies series. That Rockies game came after a day off, meaning the bullpen was fresh. We don’t get that here. And with the Angels playing a day game after a night game on getaway day, it’s a good day for some of the regulars (Mike Trout? Taylor Ward?) who haven’t gotten much of a breather this season to get a break. Everything about this game adds up to Littell going long Wednesday, either to eat one to relax the bullpen or to beat up on an Angels lineup that is almost dead-average this year (102 wRC+, 14th of 30 teams) but could easily justify a few days off Wednesday.
Houston Astros/Kansas City Royals Over 9.0 Runs
-105, Caesars
We have a perfect storm in Kansas City Wednesday afternoon. These two teams played an extra-inning game Monday after neither starter finished the six innings, meaning John Schreiber, James McArthur and Bryan Abreu all pitched a second straight day. The Royals have had one day off since the second day of the season and don’t have another for another week, and Wednesday’s game is a night game ahead of a day game Thursday. The Astros had to burn pitchers Monday when the starter got exactly one out and Tuesday for the extra innings, and they have Spencer Arrighetti Wednesday making his big-league debut against a team on a five-game winning streak. The Royals are throwing Seth Lugo, who has allowed only one run through 12.2 innings this season, but that’s come with only 7 strikeouts. He’s been limiting hard contact, but there’s still been some luck there, and that sort of luck is tough to count on against a team like the Astros, whose team 121 wRC+ is tied for fourth in baseball. We’ll see plenty of runs Wednesday evening in Kansas City.
