Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
Cristian Javier Over 5.5 K’s +100 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Astros -105 @ Phillies -115 Total 7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
We look to bounce back Wednesday night in Game 4 of the World Series, as we went 0-2 in Game 3. I liked a few bets in Wednesday’s strikeout prop market. I wanted to bet Aaron Nola under 6.5 strikeouts, but that number didn’t last long. I also looked at Cristian Javier with more strikeouts than Nola at +114, I ended up playing that one small. But officially, we’re going with Javier Over 5.5 K’s at +100.
Javier didn’t throw enough innings to qualify for the MLB leaderboard but he’s near the top in a few categories once you lower the minimum innings pitched to 140. You might not hear Javier mentioned with the other top punchout pitchers in the majors but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t belong. The 25-year-old’s 33.2% K% ranks second best in the majors, tied with Ohtani, and trailing only Carlos Rodón. According to Baseball Savant, Javier’s K% ranked in the 94th percentile this season. His 13.8% SwStr% ranked 11th-best in baseball, while his 80% Z-contact% ranked fourth best in the game.
In the regular season, the Phillies 22.3% K% against right-handed pitchers ranked 16th in the show. As strikeouts in the postseason increase league-wide, the Phillies were no different. Entering Wednesday night, the Phillies overall strikeout percentage sits at 25.1% this postseason (in 504 PA).
While the Astros struck out at the sixth-lowest rate this season against right-handed pitching (20.4%), and we’ve seen their K% in the postseason increase to 21.7% overall (19.5% overall in the regular season). They’re still one of the most disciplined teams that regularly puts the ball in play and they’ve getting their second look at Nola in less than a week.
I’m projecting Framber to pitch five-plus innings and strike out the six batters we need to cash our K prop. Be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number available.
Bet: Cristian Javier Over 5.5 K’s +100
