MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!
Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Rangers -110 @ Diamondbacks -110 – Total 9.5 (Bet365)
Jon Gray replaced an injured Max Scherzer in Game 3 and gave the Rangers a huge boost out of the pen by throwing three shutout innings and striking out three Diamondbacks. The issue is, Gray was earmarked to start Wednesday’s Game 4 for Texas, which gives us an edge in the pitching prop market.
With Bruce Bochy burning Gray in Tuesday night’s 3-1 win, Andrew Heaney gets the nod in Game 4 for the Rangers. Heaney threw 56 pitches and went 3.2 innings against the Orioles back on Oct. 7, but hasn’t thrown more than 22 pitches in an outing since. I can’t see Heaney going more than three innings Wednesday, even if the southpaw is incredibly efficient. Gray looked unhittable Tuesday, and Bochy pulled him after three innings, 30 pitches and 10 total batters faced (one over the minimum). As I mentioned last week, pitching props in the postseason come down to usage more than anything. Similar to Gray, Heaney is on two days rest after tossing 0.2 innings in relief in Game 2. I’m expecting Dane Dunning to enter the game in the middle innings and bridge the gap to the Rangers’ high leverage arms.
While this isn’t some massive edge, the most likely outcome is Heaney going fewer than 9.5 outs Wednesday night. Most of the market has been steamed significantly to the under but there are a couple shops still hanging in the -140 range. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number on the board.
Bet
Andrew Heaney Under 9.5 Outs (-140, Bet365 and DraftKings Sportsbook)
