Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 10/12)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

First 5 Innings Under 4.5 runs -168 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Phillies shocked the Braves Tuesday and got a win on the road to kick off the NLDS. Atlanta put up a great fight, but the Phillies put together an early lead that they refused to let go of. Game 2 is in Atlanta as well, and the Braves need a win to get back into this series before these teams head to Philly. 

Kyle Wright will take the mound for the Braves in Atlanta. During the regular season, Wright went 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA, a 3.58 FIP and a 1.16 WHIP. Wright faced the Phillies three times this year and had great starts in all three. 

At home this year, Wright pitched to the tune of a 2.86 ERA, a .236 batting average against, a .332 slugging percentage, a 3.19 FIP and a 1.14 WHIP. The Braves went 13-5 in Wright’s home starts this season and one of those losses came against the Phillies back in May. 

Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies. During the season, Wheeler went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA, a 2.89 FIP, and a 1.04 WHIP. Wheeler faced the Braves three times this season and he had tremendous success in all three of those starts. 

On the road this season, Wheeler had a 3.84 ERA, a .253 batting average against, a .412 slugging percentage against, a 3.15 FIP and a 1.20 WHIP. In his postseason start on the road against the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, Wheeler allowed no runs on two hits in 6.1 innings of work. 

Both starters are familiar with these teams’ lineups and had success against them in the postseason. Both bullpens had rough outings Tuesday, so I expect the starters to carry the load here. Most sportsbooks have this first five total at 3.5, but FanDuel still has 4.5, though the juice is heavy. This leads me to believe the under is the right side despite the -168 juice. 

Bet: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 runs -168 (FanDuel Sportsbook)