Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 8/7)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates 

Braves -278 @ Pirates +222 Total 8.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)

The Pirates are the largest underdog on the MLB board Monday as we look for ways to back the Braves. It’s hard to bet Atlanta on the moneyline, and they’re already as high as -180 on the run line. I thought I would write up Spencer Strider to get a win, but that got slammed from around -130 to the -180 range. So, team total it is. We’ll see a good amount of CLV here (as long as Atlanta’s lineup has most of its regulars). 

The Braves offense has been an absolute wagon in 2023 and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. Atlanta’s offense ranks at the top of the leaderboard in a number of categories, including their 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Nobody in baseball has a higher wOBA, hard-hit percentage, expected batting average or expected slugging percentage than Atlanta. They also lead the league in home runs with 212, more than 30 dongs ahead of the next-best club (Dodgers 179). Over the last 30 days, their offense has been even better, posting a 133 wRC+ against righties. Overall, the Braves average 5.68 runs per game, second behind only the Texas Rangers. I could easily write 500+ words on Ronald Acuña Jr. and the crew, but let’s move on to the pitching side. 

It’s going to be a tough series for Pirates fans, but the good news for Pittsburgh is the Steelers play their first preseason game on Friday! Speaking of the NFL, be sure to check out Aaron Schatz’s 2023 FTN Football Almanac and get access to the most accurate NFL team projections, 500+ player projections, DVOA metrics and more. 

Back on the diamond, Osvaldo Bido toes the rubber for the Bucos Monday night. The rookie has only made nine appearances in the majors but seems to be just another guy. He posted a 4.70 ERA in AAA in 174.1 innings with a FIP above 5.00 in two of those three seasons. In seven starts in 2023, Bido has a 5.97 ERA and a 5.07 xFIP with a 10.9% K-BB%. Projection systems aren’t a fan either, as both THE BAT (5.42) and Steamer (5.03) project Bido to post an ERA above 5.00 the rest of the way. 

The 27-year-old doesn’t generate swings and misses or ground balls. His expected batting average ranks in the 14th percentile, and his expected ERA isn’t far behind in the 27th percentile. The Pirates bullpen ranks just outside the bottom 10 in ERA and FIP and is ninth-worst in SIERA. 

I don’t expect Bido to last more than three or four innings against Atlanta and company Monday night at PNC Park before Derek Shelton makes a call to the bullpen. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bets: Braves TT Over 5.5 (-105)