Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re 8-2 on article plays this season as we cashed our last bet thanks to the Royals offense. We’re backing the same group of batters here, as KC hosts gascan James Paxton and the Boston Red Sox. Let’s get right into it, and I’m going to keep it brief as this is going to be a popular play and should see some steam.
Boston Red Sox (+120) @ Kansas City Royals (-142)
(Total 9.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Southpaw James Paxton was DFA’d by the Los Angeles Dodgers, and thankfully scooped up by the pitching-desperate Red Sox. The southpaw makes his 20th start of the season, his second for Boston. Paxton’s ERA is under 5.00, but all his ERA indicators are hovering around five, with a 4.83 xERA, 4.96 FIP, 5.29 XFIP and 5.40 SIERA. Paxton’s SIERA and xFIP are the worst in baseball, even worse than our most recent fade Chris Flexen. Right-handed hitters have a 5.37 FIP against the 35-year-old, and we can expect eight of them in the Royals lineup Monday night. You know his Savant page is covered in blue.
I’m not sure how much Alex Cora’s call to the bullpen will help, as the Sox pen has a 5.74 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and 4.88 SIERA over the last 14 days.
Over the last month, the Royals offense has been below average against lefties according to wRC+, but Paxton isn’t your average lefty. They have an 87 wRC+ against southpaws which ranks 23rd but they’re slashing .294/.388/.681. The Royals average over five runs at home, 5.19 which is the third most in the Show. Their 4.74 runs per game overall ranks ninth.
Given the plus-money, the over on the 5.5 is a solid play but I went with the 4.5 here. You can use FTN’s Prop Shop to bet the best available number.
Best Bet
Royals TT Over 4.5 (-142, FanDuel Sportsbook)
