Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 10/11)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers 

Over 7.5 runs -104 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The NLDS is finally here, and the No 1. Seed Dodgers face the No. 5 seed Padres in a best-of-five. These two teams are familiar with each other as NL West rivals, and the Dodgers dominated the season series 14-5. San Diego has all the momentum right now, but the Dodgers are a juggernaut. This should be an interesting series. 

San Diego got past the Mets with a combination of great pitching and timely offense. San Diego’s starters kept the Mets in check in games one and three, and their offense was able to beat up on the Mets starters who are some of the best in baseball.

Mike Clevinger will take the mound against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Clevinger has had a rough 2022 campaign and he was not good in any of his three starts against the Dodgers this season. On the road this season, Clevinger has pitched a lot worse than he did when pitching at home. On the road this season, Clevinger has a 5.46 ERA, a .255 batting average against, a .442 slugging percentage against, a 5.16 FIP and a 1.35 WHIP. 

The Dodgers have the best offense in baseball, and they are going against a pitcher they beat up on this season. This is a great matchup for Los Angeles, even when you consider the fact that they have not played meaningful baseball in a week. 

Julio Urías will make the start for the Dodgers at home. Urías put together an excellent regular season and he shut down the Padres in their meetings this year. At home this season, Urias was slightly worse than he was on the road. Regardless, his numbers were great. At home, Urías had a 2.43 ERA, a .183 batting average against, a .359 slugging percentage against, a 4.27 FIP and a .89 WHIP. The Dodgers went 9-5 in his home starts this season. 

In the postseason I never feel comfortable laying -200+ on a favorite, and with Clevinger on the mound, this can get out of hand early for San Diego. Given the way this Padres offense has performed lately, mixed with the Dodgers’ incredible offense, I see a lot of runs being scored here. 

Bet: Over 7.5 runs -104 (FanDuel Sportsbook)