Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Brewers +120 @ Dodgers -145 – Total 8.5 (BetMGM)
Jon Gray wasn’t close to cashing for us Wednesday night — he finished with four K’s as the Angels only struck out six times in nine innings. We’re headed back to the K market Thursday night, but we’ll be rooting against punchouts in this one. We’ve done extremely well on props this year — 198-122 +43.53x – with the large majority being strikeout props. So let’s get back in the win column.
Corbin Burnes has had an inconsistent 2023 season, as he’s going through one of the worst years as a starting pitcher. The 28-year-old has posted the lowest strikeout percentage of his career at 24.7% – more than 5% worse than his career average. Burnes’ 11.9% swinging-strike percentage is 3% lower than his career mark and his zone contact percentage 86.4% is about four percent higher, both are the worst numbers he’s posted since entering the league. The righty has been able to limit hard contact in 2023 but the swing and miss stuff clearly isn’t there, as you can see in his percentile rankings below (via Baseball Savant). The former NL Cy Young winner has stayed under this number in 14 of his 24 starts this season.
The Dodgers are one of the best offenses in the Show this season and they have the discipline metrics to go with the power they’ve displayed. LAD has the ninth-lowest K% against right-handed pitching this year at 21.6%. Over the last 30 days, only the Guardians have a lower punchout percentage against right-handed pitching than the Dodgers who sit at 18.5%. Overall, the Dodgers have the 10th-lowest swinging-strike percentage in baseball at 10.6%. It’s tough to get this Dodgers team to chase pitches outside the strike zone. Their 28.6% o-swing percentage is the third lowest in MLB.
I’m projecting Burnes to pitch about six innings and punch out five or six hitters. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this under, as he projects Burnes for 5.36 strikeouts. This number has dropped a ton since I started writing, as some shops are even posting a 5.5. I personally played 6,5 -125 less than an hour ago but you can still bet it at around -150 a handful of places. Use the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.
Bet
Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 K’s (-150, BetMGM)
