NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!
Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Angels +145 @ Rangers -175 – Total 9 (BetMGM)
We lost a tough one Tuesday night, as the Braves scored five runs through four innings but couldn’t plate a sixth run and get us to the window. We’re heading to the K market Wednesday to get back into the win column.
After suffering and pitching through a couple injuries, Jon Gray looks as if he’s returned to his early season form. Through two starts in August, he’s posted a season high 27.7% K% and finds himself facing a strikeout prone club in the Angels. Gray has struck out 19 batters in his last three starts, against some disciplined clubs. After four straight starts with a swinging-strike percentage in the single-digits, he’s posted a 15.8% SwStr% over his last four starts. The 31-year-old’s best punchout pitch has been his slider with a 34.6% K%, 20.2 SwStr%, and 34.6% called strikes plus whiffs.
Shohei Ohtani’s club enters play Wednesday with the sixth-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching at 24.6% and they’ve been even worse lately. Over the last 30 days that number sits at 28.6% – which is the third-highest in the Show. Over the last 14 days, the Halos offense has posted the second-highest K percentage and swinging-strike percentage overall at 28.5% and 14.6%, respectively. Nobody has posted a higher chase percentage (40.4%) and they’re only making contact on 83% of pitches inside the strike zone. LA averages the fifth-most strikeouts a game at 9.31. I mentioned Gray’s dominant slider above, the Angels have the eighth-highest strikeout percentage against that pitch this season at 30.4%.
I’m projecting Gray to pitch about six innings and punchout the six batters we need to cash. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this over; as Frank projects Gray for 6.25 punchouts. I personally played -138 but I still see value at -150 – I wouldn’t play higher than -165. There are a couple shops still in the -140 range, use the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.
