Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 7/6)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers 

Pirates +185 @ Dodgers -215 — Total 8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Pirates and Dodgers finish up a four-game set Thursday night, with Los Angeles having taken two of the first three games. Nothing on a side in this one — the Dodgers are big favorites with Julio Urías making his second start since returning from the IL — but I did find an edge in the strikeout market. 

Johan Oviedo put up some decent strikeout numbers in the minor leagues but hasn’t really shown the same punchout skills in the show. The 25-year-old has posted below-average strikeout rates and swing-and-miss stuff. His 19.2% K% ranks in the 25th percentile, and his chase rate is even worse as it sits in the sixth percentile. Oviedo’s best K pitch is his slider, as he features it 40.4% of the time but it carries a below average K% at 23.7%, despite it being his best strikeout pitch. The curveball is his second-best punchout pitch, but it only has a 19% K% – it’s pretty clear Oviedo isn’t a big K guy. 

The Dodgers’ plate discipline metrics aren’t going to blow you away. They sit near the middle of the pack or better in most categories. One thing LAD does do better than almost any other club is not chase pitches outside the strike zone. They’re actually tied with the Bucs at 24.8% for the lowest chase rate in the majors. Over the last 14 days not many clubs are chasing less than the Dodgers or making more contact on pitches inside the strike zone. The Dodgers have the fourth-best walk percentage over that stretch. For the season, Los Angeles’ 22.6% K% against right-handed pitching ranks 15th and it’s a tad lower over the last 30 days at 22.4%. I mentioned Oviedo’s slider and curve usage above – the Dodgers’ K% against sliders is right around league average — so Oviedo’s slider might have trouble eating against the boys in blue. While their curveball K% is 1% lower than league average at 28.5%.

I’m projecting Johan Oviedo to struggle his way through about five innings Thursday evening, as the righty should have a tough time with the Dodgers lineup. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this under; as Frank projects Oviedo for 3.84 punchouts. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Johan Oviedo Under 4.5 K’s (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)