MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!
Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Phillies -125 @ Diamondbacks +105 – Total 9 (BetMGM)
The Phillies head to Arizona Thursday as they look to build on their 2-0 NLCS lead. Ranger Suárez toes the bump for the Phils, while rookie Brandon Pfaadt gets the ball for the Diamondbacks. I do like the Phillies to win again, but we’ll officially be on a pitching prop.
Like I mentioned last week, pitching props in the postseason come down to usage more than anything. Obviously, the opponent and situation matter, but this isn’t like the regular season where you’re simply going off data and matchups. While the Phillies bullpen is in great shape, these two clubs will be playing three games in three days (if Game 5 is necessary Saturday). So, I expect Rob Thomson to get five innings out of his No. 3 starter as long as the Arizona offense doesn’t get loose. Not that it really matters in the playoffs, but Suárez pitched five innings or more in 18 of his final 20 regular season starts. Those 20 starts include two games against Arizona where he completed five and seven innings.
At the dish, Arizona ranked in the bottom-third of the league against southpaws for the season and in the second half. As far as the playoffs go, the Diamondbacks’ bats have cooled off this series. They’re slashing .226/.301/.439, but their 14 home runs across the playoffs are tied for second most with Houston. They should stack seven right-handed hitters against Ranger Suárez, who has a career 4.11 FIP against righties (2.52 vs. LHH).
As long as he doesn’t get shelled, Suárez should throw about 80 pitches and go five innings. Not that I think the market is going to love this side, but I wouldn’t play this any higher than the -140 range. I don’t see him completing six innings, but he should be solid enough to go over his line. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number on the board.
Bet
Ranger Suárez Over 14.5 Outs (-105, BetMGM)
