Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)

We’re 13-4 on official write ups this season after the Padres cashed for us a few weeks ago. We’ve had great success on all our posted plays this postseason, so let’s get right into it and try to stack another win.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) @ New York Mets (+115)

Total 7 (BetMGM)

The Padres and Petco seem to have woken up the Dodgers. LA has scored 44 runs in 8 postseason games, averaging 5.5 runs per game. In their first three games against the Mets, the Dodgers are averaging over 6.5 runs per game, racking up 24 hits, 4 home runs and 22 walks. This doesn’t bode well for Jose Quintana, who takes the ball for the Mets in Game 4 down 2-1 in the series. It’s not like the Dodgers offense just started raking. LA had the best wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the regular season at 121. Nobody hit more home runs vs. southpaws than the Dodgers with 66, while slashing .269/.337/.458 as a team.

At 35 years old, Quintana posted an ERA under 4.00 for the third consecutive season, but all his advanced ERA indicators were around 4.50 for the regular season. The lefty needs to get the Dodgers bats to expand the strike zone and chase tonight if he’s going to have success. That might be easier said than done, given the Dodgers discipline at the plate and how willing they are to take their walks. Our FTN MLB projections aren’t confident in Quintana shoving either, here’s what he’s projected for:

The Mets bullpen is fairly well rested, but they’ll need to pencil in some arms for Friday’s Game 5. Through 39.2 postseason innings, Mets relievers have posted a 4.76 ERA, 5.26 FIP and 4.38 SIERA.

The FTN MLB Model agrees with our bet, as it has the Dodgers projected to score 4.1 runs.