Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Sunday 5/7)

It’s Sunday, and that means a lot of early MLB action today. The first game starts at 11:35 ET and most first pitches occur before 7 p.m. tonight. 

That means we need to get our money down early. The MLB Betting model doesn’t show any significant playable edges in the spread or moneyline markets, but it does have a few in the totals market. That is where we find our MLB best bets for Sunday.

Best MLB Total Bets

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9 

(-110 DraftKings)

Roansy Contreras has a 3.78 ERA over 130+ innings the last few seasons. He has been very solid as a starter at limiting damage. Yusei Kikuchi has not been as good at limiting damage but has an advantage today. Kikuchi has been tagged for a couple homers this year, and home runs fly out of his home park in the Rogers Centre at a much higher rate than they fly out of PNC Park. If Kikuchi can keep the ball in the latter park, we could see a very low scoring game. 

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Under 8.5 

(-105 DraftKings)

The Twins’ Joe Ryan has been great to start the season. He has five wins in six starts, an ERA of only 2.37 and a 0.76 WHIP. The Guardians have the third-lowest wRC+ score against right-handed pitching this year, so Ryan is in a prime spot to shut them down. The matchup on the other side is likely to produce a few runs. The Twins are about average with a 99 wRC+ against righties. Cal Quantrill isn’t a good pitcher, with a WHIP nearing 1.50 and an ERA just under 5.00. As I said, the Twins should get some runs. If Ryan can shut down Cleveland, the Twins would need an explosion for six or more for this to go over.