Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s Sunday, and that means a lot of early MLB action today. The first game starts at 11:35 ET and most first pitches occur before 7 p.m. tonight.
That means we need to get our money down early. The MLB Betting model doesn’t show any significant playable edges in the spread or moneyline markets, but it does have a few in the totals market. That is where we find our MLB best bets for Sunday.
Best MLB Total Bets
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9
Roansy Contreras has a 3.78 ERA over 130+ innings the last few seasons. He has been very solid as a starter at limiting damage. Yusei Kikuchi has not been as good at limiting damage but has an advantage today. Kikuchi has been tagged for a couple homers this year, and home runs fly out of his home park in the Rogers Centre at a much higher rate than they fly out of PNC Park. If Kikuchi can keep the ball in the latter park, we could see a very low scoring game.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Under 8.5
The Twins’ Joe Ryan has been great to start the season. He has five wins in six starts, an ERA of only 2.37 and a 0.76 WHIP. The Guardians have the third-lowest wRC+ score against right-handed pitching this year, so Ryan is in a prime spot to shut them down. The matchup on the other side is likely to produce a few runs. The Twins are about average with a 99 wRC+ against righties. Cal Quantrill isn’t a good pitcher, with a WHIP nearing 1.50 and an ERA just under 5.00. As I said, the Twins should get some runs. If Ryan can shut down Cleveland, the Twins would need an explosion for six or more for this to go over.
