Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Kansas City Royals
Dodgers -240 @ Royals +196 — Total 9.5 (Caesars)
Los Angeles took the first of a three-game series against the Royals Friday, and their rotation gets healthier Saturday with the return of Julio Urías. I don’t have a wager on a side in this one, but I did find an edge in the team total market.
Daniel Lynch makes his seventh start of the 2023 season Saturday afternoon. He’s made two straight good starts, but his season numbers still show a fair amount of negative regression. Sure, Lynch has an ERA below 4.00 for the first time since his first start of the season, but Saturday’s matchup against the Dodgers should change that. Lynch has an expected ERA of 4.48 and both his FIP and SIERA sit north of five. The 26-year-old has posted a career low 15.9% K% this season, which ranks in the ninth percentile. Lynch’s ground ball percentage is also the lowest of his career, all while posting a barrel rate around the 50th percentile. The southpaw has had a tough time against right-handed batters this season — posting a 5.07 FIP and he should see at least seven Dodgers batting from the right side.
The Dodgers are one of five teams to average more than five runs a game in 2023 — their 5.49 runs per game ranks fourth in the league. Nobody has averaged more runs than LAD on the road this season at 5.64. Specifically against lefties, the Dodgers have the sixth-best wRC+ at 111. The Dodgers offense also sits near the top of the leaderboard in barrel percentage, expected slugging, and xWOBA. The Dodgers have mashed fastballs and changeups this year, which works in their favor, given Lynch throws those two pitches over 70% of the time combined. The Dodgers rank in the top-three in on-base percentage, slugging and expected weighted on-base average against changeups this year. Overall, they’re the second-most profitable team as far as team total overs go – only the Rays have cashed their overs at a higher clip.
I’m projecting Lynch to struggle his way through about five innings Saturday afternoon. Things won’t get much better for KC once he exits, as the Royals bullpen has been horrendous. Their 5.00 ERA is only better than Oakland’s, and their SIERA is just outside the bottom 10. The only thing Lynch and the Royals have going for them is a favorable umpire behind the dish but that shouldn’t stop the Dodgers from posting a few crooked numbers at Kauffman Stadium. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.
Bets
Dodgers TT Over 5.5 (-118, Caesars)
