Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Saturday 6/17)

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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Tampa Bay Rays @ San Diego Padres

Rays -105 @ Padres -115 — Total 8.5 (BetMGM)

Tampa Bay and San Diego play the second of a three-game set Saturday evening at Petco Park. Former Ray Blake Snell is on the bump for the Padres, while Tampa’s big free agent signing, Zach Eflin, is on the bump for the road team. I don’t have a bet on a side, but I found an edge in the strikeout market in this interleague matchup.

You may not consider Eflin a big strikeout guy, but his K% ranks 22nd in MLB, ahead of both Yu Darvish and Charlie Morton. Zach Eflin’s 26% strikeout percentage is the second highest of his career (he posted a 28.6% in the shortened 2020 season). Eflin’s plate discipline metrics are the best of his eight-year career. His 11% swinging-strike percentage and 30.4% called strike plus whiff rate are career highs. The righty has gotten hitters to miss pitches inside the zone with his 84.9% zone-contact percentage being the lowest of his career. The 29-year-old has gone over this strikeout total in nine of his 12 starts, missing twice by the hook.

The Padres have the eighth-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching in baseball at 23.6%. While most of their plate discipline metrics are around league average or better, this isn’t a big number to get over and San Diego has a handful of hitters with a strikeout percentage over 30%. The Padres should feature five left-handed hitters in Saturday’s lineup, but Eflin hasn’t shown much of a difference in his strikeout rates when it comes to splits – this season and throughout his career.

I’m projecting Zach Eflin to pitch about six innings Saturday and K the five Padres we need to cash. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this over; as Frank projects Eflin for 5.18 punchouts. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.