Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 7/29)

Thanks to the All-Star break, it’s been nearly a month since my last writeup. Hunter Brown cashed for us July 1 to push our article record to 7-2 on the season. If you missed it, I wrote up a second-half MLB pitcher regression article over the break. There’s some good information in there on pitchers I’m looking to back or fade in the second half.

Kansas City Royals (-175) @ Chicago White Sox (+148)

Total 9 (Caesars)

With the MLB trade deadline less than 26 hours away, there are a couple teams and players I’m being careful backing until after the deadline. The Royals aren’t one of those clubs, as they look to be buyers and make a postseason push. However, their opponent (the White Sox) has been careful with a couple starters, resulting in an overused bullpen just a few days into the second half. Only the backend of their pen is rested, but hopefully we won’t be facing those guys anyway Monday.

KC enters the day scoring the 11^th-most runs a game in baseball at 4.62 as they get set to face a pitcher whose savant page is covered in blue.

In 106.1 innings this season, Chris Flexen has a 5.25 ERA, 5.15 FIP and xFIP and a SIERA of 5.05. Only his xERA is below five at 4.82, as he faces a club that rocked him 10 days ago. Flexen allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings on the 19th vs. the Royals in KC. He surrendered four walks, four barrels (28.6%) and a 57.1% hard hit percentage as well, both season highs. The 30-year-old has been getting wrecked by left-handed hitters this season, as they have a .377 wOBA and 6.08 FIP – he’ll face five batters from the left side today in Chicago. Over the last two weeks, the Royals are hitting .297 vs. right-handed pitching as a team, they have a 117 wRC+ and .341 wOBA over that stretch. Only the Yankees have scored more runs than the Royals against righties since July 15.

Things won’t get any better for the White Sox once Flexen departs, as their bullpen is bottom-five in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Their 4.13 SIERA ranks sixth-worst in the show.

Check out what the FTN Model projects for Flexen Monday. The FTN MLB Model sees the Royals winning this one and going over our total.