Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Monday 8/14)

Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets today. Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday.

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The Best MLB Props

Texas Rangers Over 4.5 Runs

(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I’m picking on Patrick Sandoval, who checks in with a solid 3.86 ERA but an alarming 3.78 BB/9. The Angels’ pitcher has allowed two or fewer runs in five straight starts, but he’s allowed 13 walks over that span. The walks are a big reason why he has a 4.36 xFIP, because he’s mostly been a contact pitcher all season long (7.55 K/9). He’s walked at least four batters in two of his past five outings. He won’t last long tonight if he can’t find his control.

Texas makes a lot of contact and they’ve been fantastic against left-handed pitchers all season long. The Rangers’ .355 wOBA, 128 wRC+ and .825 OPS against southpaws rank second behind the Atlanta Braves.

Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts

(-105, BetMGM)

Max Scherzer is set to make his third start as Ranger, and his first two resulted in wins. He’s allowed 10 hits over his 13 innings with the Rangers, but he’s only allowed four runs and he’s fanned 15 batters. Asking for eight strikeouts is a lot, but he punched out nine in his Texas debut against the Chicago White Sox, and he’s in a great spot to flirt with that number again.

The Angels check in with the second-highest K rate in baseball over the last 30 days (27.7%). No team has a higher swinging strike percentage than their 15.5% mark over that span. Colorado is next at 14.8%. Overall against RHP, they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate at 25%.

Scherzer still allows his fair share of home runs (24), and his walks have been an issue of late, but he has a 10 K/9 for the 12th straight season. He should have no problem completing at least six innings, which should be enough to get to eight.