Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
San Diego Padres (-138) @ Los Angeles Angels (+118)
Total 8.5, (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Let’s stay hot with the writeups, as last week’s strikeout parlay winner moved us to 5-0 in 2024. There’s only eight games on today’s MLB slate, and we’re waiting for pitchers to be confirmed in two of those matchups. Nothing in the strikeout market is jumping out, so we’ll roll with a side as we look to go 6-0.
The Padres visit the Halos Monday night with Matt Waldron taking the bump for San Diego. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla has done a great job getting the most out of the righty Waldron this season. Waldron is primarily a knuckleball pitcher, throwing it 37% of the time, but still features a four-seamer 23%, sweeper 18% and a sinker 15% in his 2024 arsenal. He’s posted a solid 4.26 ERA with all of his advanced stats under four. The 27-year-old’s 3.53 xERA, 3.46 FIP and 3.75 SIERA tell us that he’s been somewhat unlucky and that we can expect some positive regression. Waldron has been elite at limiting hard contact this season, as he sits in the 90th percentile in that metric.
Here’s what the MLB FTN Model projects for Waldron tonight:
Waldron and the Pads go up against southpaw Tyler Anderson. I’ve unsuccessfully faded Anderson a few times this season, as he has the largest negative difference between ERA and FIP among qualified pitchers at -2.09. No starter has been more fortunate than the 34-year-old. His 2.47 ERA is thanks in large part to a low BABIP of .221 and high LOB% of 87%. Anderson has posted a 9.9% barrel percentage, the highest of his career, and one of the highest in MLB, ranking in the 18th percentile. Anderson is in the 25th percentile or worse in a number of categories, including xERA and K%.
Here’s what the MLB FTN Model projects for Anderson Monday evening:
The Padres have the clear advantage at the dish as well. Their 98 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days ranks near the middle of the pack. The Halos offense has been struggling against right-handed pitching with a 65 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Only the White Sox (64 wRC+) offense has been worse in that stretch. Anderson won’t find much success getting the Padres to swing and miss, as San Diego has the second-lowest strikeout rate versus southpaws in that period. The lefty will need more good fortune in the BABIP department to avoid trouble against the Pads.
San Diego also has a significant bullpen advantage:
Bullpen Ranks
ERA: Padres 14th: 3.75 | Angels 29th: 4.85
FIP: Padres 7th: 3.71 | Angels 28th: 4.63
xFIP: Padres 8th: 3.79 | Angels 26th: 4.39
SIERA: Padres 6th: 3.62 | Angels 28th: 4.18
The FTN MLB Model has the Padres projected to win tonight 4.6 to 4. I played a slightly better number here at -132 but like the Padres up to -141. Be sure to use FTN’s Live Odds page to find and bet the best number available to you.
Best Bet
Padres -138 (FanDuel)
