Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I’ve been struggling for the last week as I’ve hit a cold patch on the bases but we’re looking to go 5-0 on writeups in 2024, so let’s run clean today. We’re going to tease down a couple strikeout props and parlay them on this small MLB Thursday slate.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Blue Jays -108, Tigers -112, Total 7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’re heading to Detroit for the first leg of our K prop parlay, where Kevin Gausman is taking on the Tigers. Gausman got off to a late start after making only one spring training start due to a shoulder injury. The righty is finding his groove, posting a 26.9% K% over his last four starts and going over this number in all four. Gausman’s chase rate still ranks in the 82nd percentile. The Tigers come in with the eighth-highest K% against right-handed pitching this season at 24% — they’ve been slightly better lately despite increasing their chase rate.
Here’s what the FTN MLB Model projects for Kevin Gausman:
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox
Orioles -238, White Sox +195, Total 8 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Grayson Rodriguez takes the bump for the O’s against the White Sox. Rodriguez has bumped up both his strikeout and swinging strike percentage in his sophomore season. He’s gone over this number in six of his seven starts. His 83.2% zone-contact percentage sits just outside the top 15 in the American League. Over the last 14 days the White Sox sit around league average in K% at 22.6%. Their projected lineup still features six batters with an average strikeout percentage or above, with four batters coming in above 25%.
Here’s what the FTN MLB Model projects for Grayson Rodriguez:
Both pitchers are projected for close to six punchouts, so we should be in a good spot for both to get 5. As always, be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to bet the best available lines.
Best Bet
Kevin Gausman 5+ K’s/Grayson Rodriguez 5+ K’s (-120 Parlay, DraftKings Sportsbook)
