Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 6/17)

It’s a smaller nine-game slate on tap for us this evening. But that doesn’t mean we won’t find some advantages in the MLB betting market.

Below, you’ll find the top MLB bet today across the baseball landscape.

San Francisco Giants (-105)  @ Chicago Cubs (-115) 

Total 10.5, (DraftKings Sportsbook)

We suffered our first writeup loss a few weeks back, thanks to the Padres losing to the Angels 2-1. San Diego wasn’t able to get a hit with runners in scoring position. The Cubs host the Giants at Wrigley Field this evening, and we’re headed to the strikeout market to get us back in the win column.

Moving from the bullpen to the rotation has certainly cost Jordan Hicks some velocity, but the rest of the results have been positive. Hicks’ 10.9% swinging-strike percentage is the best he’s posted since 2019 with the Cardinals. It hasn’t equaled a bump in strikeouts, though, as his 21.4% K rate is the lowest since his rookie season. Hicks has shown some significant home and road splits in the strikeout department. It might be opponent related or Hicks simply pitching more to contact in his spacious home park, but he has a 17.4% K rate at home while posting a 26.8% rate on the road. Either way, we’ve seen an uptick in punchouts over his last four starts with a 13.9% SwStr% and a 28.6% K rate against some disciplined lineups. The 27-year-old faces a strikeout-prone Cubs team tonight in Chicago. 

Over the last two weeks and 354 plate appearances, the Cubs have the sixth-highest K% against right-handed pitching. The Cubs have had trouble making contact on pitches inside the strike zone, posting a 81.3% z-contact% over that period. Hicks’ repertoire should make things even tougher for the baby bears. Hicks throws his sinker 51.1% of the time, and while it only carries a 10.1% K rate and 13.1% whiff%, the Cubbies haven’t had much success against it. Chicago has the fourth-highest whiff% against the sinker at 15.7%, and its punchout percentage is just outside the top 10. Both percentages are even higher when facing right-handed pitchers. The Cubs don’t grade out well against Hicks’ two top strikeout pitches either. The righty’s split finger has a 40.4% whiff% and 36.6% K rate, while his sweeper has a 36.9% whiff% and 34% K rate. The Cubs’ 38.1% whiff% against splitters ranks 10th highest, and their 34.8% K rate is 11th. The Cubbies’ 34.4% K rate against sweepers is also fifth highest in the bigs.

We know Hicks isn’t pitching deep into games, but this number isn’t a big one to go over, and it seems the matchup is in his favor. As always, be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to bet the best available lines. 

Best Bet

Jordan Hicks Over 4.5 Ks -130 (DraftKings)