Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets today.
Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday.
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The Best MLB Prop Bets
Cincinnati Reds Over 4.5 Runs
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This Cincinnati Reds run has been fun to watch, and it’s put a few extra bucks in our pockets. It’s probably not sustainable due to the lack of top-end talent in their starting rotation, but our 40-1 NL Central MLB Future bet is very much in play.
Cincinnati lost back-to-back games last weekend against the Braves, but they were both 7-6 defeats. The Reds have rattled off 15 wins in their last 19 games, and they’ve scored five runs in 14 of those matchups. They’ve moved to 11th in team wOBA, and they have the fifth-best mark over the last 30 days (.353). They enter Monday a half-game up on the Milwaukee Brewers for the top spot in the NL Central.
Baltimore pitcher Cole Irvin has coughed up 15 hits and 10 homers in 14 innings at home this season. He checks in with a 4.80 xFIP, 42.1% fly ball rate and an alarming 82.1% contact rate. Irvin has allowed 31 hits and 20 runs in his 23.1 innings.
Consider Matt McLain’s total bases in this matchup against Irvin. The lefty has allowed 26 hits, 17 runs, five homers, and 11 extra-base hits in 19 innings vs RHH. Righties are slashing .321/.380./.593 with a .408 wOBA against him. He has five starts this season and he’s allowed 19 runs and five homers in them.
McLain only has five bombs on the season, but he’s homered in back-to-back games. He has three homers and seven extra-base hits vs LHP in 40 PA. He’s hitting .350 with a .675 SLG, 1.025 OPS, .325 ISO, .432 wOBA and 169 wRC+ against lefties. His seven extra-base hits vs LHP are tied for the third-most on the Reds. Kevin Newman leads the way with nine, but McLain has a higher flyball rate (40%) than Newman.
Bonus
- Matt McLain Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 (BetMGM)
- Matt McLain Home Run +420 (FanDuel)
- Reid Detmers & Dylan Cease 6+K +130 (BET365)
