2025 Major League Baseball Futures

We’re just a couple of days away from the real MLB Opening Day (not counting last week’s Japan series) — the moment baseball fans have been waiting for. The Spring Training trucks are packed, rosters and rotations are just about finalized, and we’re gearing up for the eight-month grind.

Home Run Futures

Our undefeated streak on HR futures snapped last year, as Yordan Alvarez two homers short of clearing 36.5 homers. But we’re not shying away — we’re diving back into the same market and backing another superstar, one who’s battled injuries but is primed for a monster year.

Enter El Niño.

Fernando Tatis Jr. finally had a normal, rehab-free offseason — his first in years. The Padres’ star slugger told Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune:

“I haven’t felt this good since the offseason of 2020 coming into 2021. It feels great. My body is in a great spot, my swing is in an amazing spot. And definitely looking forward to what this year is going to be.”

While this might sound like the usual “Best Shape of His Life” narrative, it carries weight for a guy who played only 102 games last season. And despite the limited action, Tatis quietly put up elite numbers, all while improving his plate discipline (lowering his chase rate and increasing his zone contact):

116.8 MPH max exit velocity (career-best)
14.5% barrel rate (+3.5 percentage points from 2023, 92nd percentile)
.538 xSLG (his highest since 2021, when he crushed 42 HRs in 130 games)

Tatis has only gone over 28.5 HRs once — back in 2021 — but every major projection model has him smashing 30-plus bombs this season. If he plays around 125 games, this bet has serious value. I sent out over 29.5 HR last month, but Caesars decided to open their prop at 27.5, three home runs lower than the rest of the market. I added more on that number and love El Niño to hit 30-plus in 2024.

Model	HR Projection
FTN	36
VDP	39
BAT X	31
Steamer	33
ATC	32

Best Bet

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 28.5 Home Runs (-125, Caesars)

World Series Futures

As I’ve mentioned before, I’m not a big futures bettor. I don’t build a portfolio of bets to track for six months or jump in and out of the market chasing value. In fact, I’ve never placed a World Series future in March — my focus is on the daily MLB grind. But this year? That changes.

You think I'm joking about the @Orioles being 2025 World Series Champions pic.twitter.com/RrxFV3j6dJ

— MLBdream (@MLBdream) November 9, 2019

Most of you know I’m an Orioles fan and I’ve been through some tough stretches with the club. However, I was able to tell early on that Mike Elias and his track record would turn things around in Baltimore. Since 2019 I’ve claimed the Orioles would win the 2025 World Series. So I’m betting on the narrative I’ve created. I don’t make bets for content or for fun… but this one? It’s both. And the best part? It’s not just a totally blind homer bet — there’s value here. Using the FTN Prop Shop, I found the Orioles to win the World Series at +1600, which is actually solid value. There isn’t a dominant team in the American League and the AL East is wide open. The Orioles will have one of the top offenses in baseball. Pitching depth has improved, Felix Bautista should provide a big boost to the bullpen and I’m hopeful Kyle Bradish can return to his top form in the second half.

The biggest question is whether they’ll have enough top-end arms to get deep into October — but you could say the same about nearly every AL contender.