2024 Major League Baseball Player Futures: Yordan Alvarez

The final pieces of Super Bowl confetti have fallen, and we can now officially shift our attention to MLB. While baseball season never ends for some of us, the excitement reaches new heights as our timelines are flooded with video clips of players playing catch in Arizona and Florida. Even though a handful of stars remain unsigned (thanks, Scott Boras!), the start of Spring Training games continues to near. The “hot” stove never quite reached a sizzle but for the first time in years we were able to enjoy a normal offseason. 

As I mentioned last year, I don’t bet much volume when it comes to futures, but we went 2-0 on HR props, our only loss was on the pitching side with Hunter Greene over 181.5 K’s. Let’s stick with the market we had success in, as I found a couple edges in the 2024 home run market. 

Yordan Alvarez Over 36.5 Home Runs

(-118, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Yordan Alvarez battled injuries in 2022 that lingered into the 2023 offseason. He wasn’t cleared to swing a bat until the end of February due to a hand injury, which also forced him to miss the WBC. He only played in two Spring Training games, finishing with only seven at bats. Being healthy this offseason and not having to play catch up while rehabbing is a clear boost for 2024. 

If you read Vlad Sedler’s 2024 FTN Fantasy Guide, you’ve known for months I’ve been targeting the 26-year-old superstar’s HR prop since the end of last season. This bet fits the same logic as our two home run prop wins from last year. The sweet-swinging southpaw had somewhat of a down season in 2023 as far as counting stats go, at least for his standards. Alvarez still posted 31 home runs but was limited to only 114 games and fewer than 500 plate appearances in the regular season. We’d love for Yordan to pick up where he left off in the postseason, when he slashed .465/.510/.977 with six longballs. If you include the lefty-slugger’s absurd postseason run, he finished with 37 home runs in a total of 125 games. 

Alvarez has exhibited an elite power skillset. In the last three seasons, he hasn’t posted an expected slugging percentage or a maximum exit velocity below the 95th percentile. While also displaying an elite barrel percentage and expected isolated power. 

While Alvarez has only gone over this home run total once (in 2022), his expected dingers have exceeded the 36.5 total for each of the last three seasons. Since 2022, only Aaron Judge has a higher slugging percentage than the Astros star. 

Where can Alvarez improve? Well, he posted his lowest home run to fly ball percentage in 2023: 21.2% (career 24.3% HR/FB%), which still ranked 16th in the league. Alvarez got under the ball more than he ever has in 2023 at 27.3% (career 22.7%), which also led to the highest infield fly ball percentage he’s posted at 6.2% (career 3.8% IFFB%). It’s hard not to conclude that health could have had a negative impact on his timing and mechanics. 

I realize this is a bet on health and one we should cash if Yordan Alvarez plays 130-plus games. Most projection systems have Alvarez hitting 39-plus long balls in about 140 games. Vlad has Yordan cranking a career-best 44 bombs in 2024 in his VDP projections, which is more than enough for us to cash. 

I wouldn’t bet this any higher than 36.5 at -135 – be sure you’re using FTN’s Prop Shop tool to ensure you’re getting the best number available to you. 

You can follow me on Twitter for more free bets, as I’ll be writing up free picks again this season. You can find the rest of my bets posted in the FTN Bet Tracker as we look to have another highly profitable MLB season in 2024.