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FTN NFL Model Best Bet: Week 18

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Welcome to FTN’s NFL Model best bet. We use our incredible NFL data to find value in the betting markets. 

Make sure to use our NFL Prop tool to find the largest edges in the prop market. Don’t leave money on the table and check FTN’s free Prop Shop tool to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

We fell a score short in Jacksonville in Week 17, as the Titans and Jags stayed under the total of 39.5. The loss puts our 2024 FTN NFL Model article record at 10-8 (+1.34), as we head into the last week of the regular season. The final week of any regular season is tricky, as some teams must win, while others are already thinking about their vacation or planning ahead for the postseason.

Our FTN NFL Model best bet features two teams hoping to play into February, as the Broncos host the Chiefs inn a AFC West matchup. KC doesn’t have anything to play for, as they sit at 15-1 with home field advantage locked up. Despite Carson Wentz getting the start, the FTN NFL Model has a large edge on the over. The model has Bo Nix and the Broncos beating the Chiefs and the scoring finishing a touchdown above the total. This gives us an 11.30% edge on the current total of 39.5 (-110) at BetMGM. Let’s finish the season with a W – good luck if you’re tailing. 

2024 DVOA:

Overall
Kansas City Chiefs: 6
Denver Broncos: 12

Offense
Kansas City Chiefs: 8
Denver Broncos: 18

Defense
Kansas City Chiefs: 9
Denver Broncos: 4

Best Bet

Chiefs/Broncos Over 39.5 (-110, BetMGM

To see all of our plays, visit the NFL Bet Tracker

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