Matt Jones's Articles

It’s very difficult to predict golf. I’m not breaking any news here. You’re likely familiar with trying to predict the PGA Tour if you’re reading this. It is a sport filled with randomness and with a lot of moving parts that lead to an ever-increasing amount of variance. I think the most important thing in […]

We’re heading into the final round of the Valero Texas Open and we have an absolute logjam at the top of the leaderboard. Four golfers are tied at 10-under: Brandt Snedeker Beau Hossler Dylan Frittelli JJ Spaun Of that quartet, Brandt Snedeker has the most sustainable strokes gained make-up. He’s 0.5 strokes clear of the […]

It’s very difficult to predict golf. I’m not breaking any news here. You all are likely familiar with trying to predict the PGA Tour if you’re reading this. It is a sport filled with randomness and with a lot of moving parts that lead to an ever-increasing amount of variance.   I think the most […]

At the Valero Texas Open today, Ryan Palmer opened up a two-stroke lead following his 6-under day.  We have a pretty bunched leaderboard, though, with eight other golfers within three strokes of the lead. Of that group, Matt Kuchar has been the most reliant on his putter. There’s always a chance that a hot putter […]

It’s very difficult to predict golf. I’m not breaking any news here. You all are likely familiar with trying to predict the PGA Tour if you’re reading this. It is a sport filled with randomness and with a lot of moving parts that lead to an ever-increasing amount of variance.   I think the most […]

It’s very difficult to predict golf. I’m not breaking any news here. You all are likely familiar with trying to predict the PGA Tour if you’re reading this. It is a sport filled with randomness and with a lot of moving parts that lead to an ever-increasing amount of variance. I think the most important […]

The Valero Open is our Masters appetizer once again. The field actually does feature a bit of star power with Rory McIlroy making the trip. If a couple of the more expensive golfers in the field don’t quite get it done, the rest of the field is all pretty bunched up, and the tournament seems […]

Last week, I switched things up by talking about a little college basketball. March Madness gets everyone involved, and the PGA Tour is no exception. The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play format is just like all the bracket contests that you’ve likely been participating in for most of your adult life. I wanted to go through […]

The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event tees off Wednesday this week. It’s not a traditional event, but there’s still some utility in checking out the field’s volatility for DFS. Match play is more variant than stroke play to begin with, so if you can find some volatile golfers that pull off an upset and win […]

Another day, another golfer separating himself from the field… In Round 3, Davis Riley was three strokes better than the next closest competitor. He shot a 9-under round on his way to the 54-hole lead. Riley was just under 2 full strokes better than the nearest golfer to him in SG: Putting and over a […]

Most of the scores near the top of the leaderboard from today look pretty standard. We’ve come to expect these types of scores in the 3-under to 5-under round. Then, you get to the top and you see a 10-under effort from Matthew NeSmith. In my database, going back through the 2017 season, there have […]

After a long (and rather odd) week at The Players Championship, the golf world is off to the Valspar Championship. We could be in for another wild DFS week as Copperhead shows its teeth in quite a few areas around the course.  As we work our way through the beginning of the season, this piece […]

It would be impossible to talk about DFS showdown for Round 4 of the Players Championship without mentioning the absolute weirdness of the scheduling. It’s not often I’m sitting down on a Monday morning with my coffee and talking about the final round of a PGA event, but here we are. It’s unfortunate that we […]

This weather situation is a bit of a disaster, no pun intended. With how the forecast is shaping up, it’s hard to envision a Sunday finish at this rate. Tommy Fleetwood and Tom Hoge are tied atop the leaderboard after firing 6-under rounds. There are still about a dozen golfers that haven’t even teed off, […]

It’s officially time for The Players Championship on the PGA Tour. We’ve had a couple of high-profile withdrawals with Kevin Na and Bryson DeChambeau bowing out of the tournament, but this is still one of the strongest fields we’re likely to see all year.  As we work our way through the beginning of the season, […]

We’re heading into the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As things stand now, we have a two-way tie at the top of the leaderboard. Billy Horschel and Talor Gooch are tied at 7-under.  With the current bunched-up leaderboard and the relative shakiness of the leaders, I don’t mind taking some chasers. If I’m […]

We’re heading into the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As things stand now, we have Viktor Hovland two strokes clear of the field. There are quite a few elite golfers nipping at his heels, though. Tyrrell Hatton, Rory McIlroy, and Cameron Young to name a few. People in the Discord understand Young’s elite-ness.  […]

We have a bit of a stronger field for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational on the PGA Tour compared to last week’s Honda Classic despite the Bryson DeChambeau withdrawal. The schedule change has taken out some of the star power from this event, but overall it’s one of the more exciting fields to watch in […]

We’re heading into the final round of the Honda Classic. For tonight’s piece, I’m going to go through and identify a rotating core that I’ll be playing in my 20-lineup build.  Core Plays I’m taking a slightly different approach tonight in regards to my core. I typically play a few different combinations and sprinkle them […]

We’re heading into the third round of the Honda Classic on Saturday. There are very few people who made it through the week unscathed. There’s a good chance your full-week lineups are completely torpedoed. But, once again, that’s the beauty of showdown! For tonight’s piece, I’m going to go through the optimizer, set some rules, […]

It’s very fitting that we’re talking about PGA DFS volatility as we head into Honda Classic week. This is a top-tier event if you’re interested in carnage. The weak field coupled with a tough course means that we can rely on this event being unreliable. As we work our way through the beginning of the […]

We’re heading into the final round of the Genesis Invitational, and Joaquin Niemann is lapping the field. The nature of Riviera Country Club, usually, is that scoring is going to be down a bit. When scoring is down, that means that the finish position bonuses are even more important because they make up a greater […]

We’re heading into the third round of the PGA Tour’s Genesis Invitational. Joaquin Niemann and Cameron Young seem to be separating themselves from the field as we head into the weekend. One more solid round from Neimann and the final round will be merely a formality. That gap between those two and the rest of […]

This week, the PGA Tour heads to Riviera Country Club to play the Genesis Invitational. As we work our way through the beginning of the season, this piece will change but it will always highlight the volatility of the golfers in a given field for that week. The reason for that is that we are […]

We’re heading into the third round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open Saturday with Sahith Theegala in the lead. I’m using our optimizer to dial in my exposures within my 20-lineup build.   For those that missed it, our very own Javier Prellezo took down the $555 using the FTN Daily content Friday: My trio of […]

As we work our way through the beginning of the PGA season, this piece will change but it will always highlight the volatility of the golfers in a given field for that week. The reason for that is that we are targeting outsized returns. We don’t want steady, consistent golfers in all of our roster […]

For the first time this week, the entire PGA field will make its way around the same course. Pebble Beach will play host to the final round and will feature a closer race than we thought we’d see just 24 hours ago. Seamus Power looked like he’d run away with this tournament, holding a 5-stroke […]

These course-rotation events on the PGA Tour, like this weekend’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am, are — perhaps mercifully — coming to an end soon. But they present some interesting opportunities from a game-theory perspective. Without adjusting for player skill, Spyglass Hill played about -0.1 strokes to par while both Monterrey Peninsula and Pebble Beach played more […]

We’re still a week away from the Super Bowl, but our look at NFL splits continues. Each week, we’ve gone through our FTN Splits Tool to look for team- and player-level trends to help us through our fantasy season. Heading toward the Super Bowl, we can look at our splits tool to identify a few things […]

As we work our way through the beginning of the PGA season, this piece will change, but it will always highlight the volatility of the golfers in a given field for that week. The reason for that is that we are targeting outsized returns. We don’t want steady, consistent golfers in all our roster spots […]

Showdown slates are some of the best sweats that NFL DFS has to offer. If you’re building lineups correctly, you can take advantage of these quick sweats week in and week out. I’ll be going through position-by-position to break down everything you need to know for the showdown slate that night.  What Does Vegas Think? […]

We’re heading into the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open Saturday. The scoring tightened up quite a bit Friday as long as your name isn’t Will Zalatoris or Cameron Young. It was an interesting day from a scoring perspective.    Jason Day and Maverick McNealy joined Zalatoris and Young in outperforming their rostership Friday. […]