Matt’s Musings | PGA Data Study, March 22

Last week, I switched things up by talking about a little college basketball. March Madness gets everyone involved, and the PGA Tour is no exception. The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play format is just like all the bracket contests that you’ve likely been participating in for most of your adult life. I wanted to go through some of my thoughts on the bracket in general and how to build DFS lineups this week. 

Should You Build DFS Lineups Optimally?

This is almost too absurd a question to answer, but like most things on Twitter, this has gotten out of hand. Let’s define “optimally” in this context. This simply means, should you build DFS lineups that have a chance at 6-of-6 in the Elite Eight and 4-of-4 of the Final Four? The answer, unequivocally, is yes. 

We know this event breeds chaos. The nature of match play is already variant and when you layer round-robin play on top of that, it becomes even more apparent that things can go out of whack. There are going to be upsets and surprises throughout all four quadrants of the bracket. But if you’re pre-emptively taking away any chance you have at winding up with the final four, you’re punting off expected value for no reason.

The only potential explanation for picking multiple golfers from the same section of the bracket would be for differentiation and it’s plenty easy to get differentiation in other ways. Looking at ownership and making a few pivots can be more than enough to have a unique DFS lineup without taking away your absolute upside. Yes, somebody won the big GPP last year with 3-of-4 of the Final Four, but people also win the lottery, and that’s a negative EV proposition as well. 

Don’t be that person, build optimally. 

My Final Four

I filled out my bracket Tuesday morning and wound up with the following Final Four:

• Jon Rahm (1)
• Collin Morikawa (2)
• Justin Thomas (6)
• Billy Horschel (12)

This is my most likely Final Four between some simulations that I ran and some gut feelings. It’s far too chalky for DFS purposes, though. Another configuration that I like, that isn’t too far off is:

• Jon Rahm (1)
• Justin Thomas (6)
• Daniel Berger (17)
• Alex Noren (50)

As you can see, I’m all in on Jon Rahm from a numbers perspective. He’s so far past the rest of the field in my Power Ranking Score that I almost have to regress his number back a little bit to make it a fair fight most of the time. 

Some of my favorite potential golfers to shock people and get out of their group (that I haven’t already mentioned) are:

• Sunjae Im (21)
• Russell Henley (34)
• Brian Harman (44)
• Cameron Young (40)