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College Football Week 3 Betting Odds, Picks, and Trends

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Another season of college football is upon us, and in addition to covering DFS as well as PrizePicks, I will be releasing a couple of weekly betting articles. The purpose of this writeup is to highlight some of my favorite college football games to bet on, my reasoning for picking said game and directing you to the site with the softest line.

 

Let’s take a look below at my favorite spots to attack for Week 3.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

12 p.m. ET Saturday
Oklahoma -11, O/U 67, DraftKings Sportsbook

The powers that be at Nebraska decided they had seen enough and canned head coach Scott Frost just a few weeks before his buyout price dropped. This probably means they privately negotiated a lower amount, but it still is somewhat shocking. The interim coach will be Mickey Joseph and we will see if he can rally the team around him for the rest of the season or if they mail it in from here on out. 

The Cornhuskers rank 113th in passing defense (284.7 yards per game), 115th in rushing defense (207.3 yards per game) and 99th in scoring defense (31 points per game). These are horrific numbers, but it’s made even worse when you consider their opponents have been Northwestern, North Dakota and Georgia Southern. These teams aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts and now they’re going to face off against a high-powered Oklahoma Sooners squad that is led by an elite quarterback in Dillon Gabriel.

The Sooners offense is averaging 39 points per game (28th), 461 yards per game (31st) and 7.1 yards per play (11th) so they should be a real-life nightmare for Nebraska’s defense. The Sooners defense has also been elite as they rank seventh in scoring defense and 27th in total yards allowed. This does count as a rivalry game, which tend to be close throughout, but we know we can count on Nebraska to make a late mistake that allows the Sooners to extend their lead and eventually cover these meager 11 points.

Betting Trends

  • Nebraska is 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games as home underdogs.
  • Oklahoma is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games.

Best Bet

Oklahoma -11

Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Texas A&M Aggies

9 p.m. ET Saturday
Texas A&M -5, O/U 45, DraftKings Sportsbook

I’m picking on the Aggies this week after they shockingly lost at home to Appalachian State 17-14. The Aggies offense has been stagnant and hasn’t looked all that good through the first two games of the season. Even against Sam Houston State in which they won 31-0 it took over half the game for QB Haynes King and the offense to wear them out. King still threw 2 interceptions in that game and could manage just 97 yards in the loss to the Mountaineers. Suddenly, this Aggies squad looks like a beatable unit thanks to their putrid offense.

Miami has the opposite problem of the Aggies though. They have a solid quarterback they can lean on in Tyler Van Dyke and a running game that has been dominant thus far. Van Dyke has completed 33-45 of his passes for 446 yards and 3 TDs. Ole Miss transfer Henry Parrish has been dominant toting the rock 35 times for 205 yards and 4 TDs. They come into town with stratospheric level confidence.

This line opened at -6 for Texas A&M but has quickly dropped to -5 and probably will go even lower by the time things kick off. You’ll want to jump on this line while it still has value.

Betting Trends

  • It’s early but Texas A&M has failed to cover the spread in both of their games thus far.

Best Bet

Miami (FL) +5

 

UTEP Miners vs. New Mexico Lobos

8 p.m. ET Saturday
UTEP -3, O/U 39.5, DraftKings Sportsbook

The Miners come into this game at 1-2 while New Mexico sits at 1-1. They may look like relatively even teams, but we can safely look to UTEP as the better offense. QB Gavin Hardison has thrown for almost 700 yards through three games while lead rusher Ronald Awatt has rushed for 190 yards and 2 TDs. Tyrin Smith leads the team in targets with a whopping 39 and has produced a stat line of 19-254-2.

The Lobos are led by Kansas transfer Miles Kendrick at quarterback with his favorite weapons being Geordon Porter (7-127-2, 11 targets) and Luke Wysong (7-67-1, 12 targets). Kendrick has thrown for 268 yards and 3 TDs with 2 INTs through two games. 

Betting Trends

  • UTEP was 8-4 against the spread last year.
  • New Mexico won only once against the spread last season.

Best Bet

UTEP -3

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