TEAM | Total DVOA | Rank | Off DVOA | Off Rank | Def DVOA | Def Rank |
DET | 35.9% | 2 | 19.7% | 4 | -12.9% | 5 |
MIN | 34.5% | 3 | 2.4% | 15 | -30.4% | 1 |
GB | 18.5% | 8 | 17.0% | 5 | -4.5% | 12 |
CHI | 2.1% | 17 | -9.6% | 25 | -10.6% | 7 |
Three teams in the top 10 in total team DVOA, including two of the top three spots. Two teams in the top five in offensive DVOA, and three in the top 10 for defensive DVOA. The Bears offense, led by a rookie quarterback, is the clear outlier of this group, but it’s also fair to say they have the most room for upside and a clear path to improvement.
Here’s how the division stacks up in aggregate:
Division | Avg. Team DVOA | Avg. Estimated Wins Per Team |
NFC North | 23% | 5.2 |
NFC West | 4% | 3.6 |
AFC West | 4% | 3.4 |
AFC North | 4% | 3.5 |
NFC East | -1% | 3.3 |
AFC South | -6% | 3.1 |
NFC South | -10% | 2.8 |
AFC East | -17% | 2.5 |
Clearly the NFC North is the best division in football in 2024. The records do not lie in this case. It’s honestly not even close.
So where does it stack up historically? I put a lot of effort into finding out how every division averaged out, so I’m going to share the whole table at the bottom of the article, with the top dozen to start with here. This only goes back to 2002 because that’s when the NFL split to eight divisions. Comparing before that wasn’t reasonable.
Division | Year | Avg. DVOA Thru Week 7 | Best Playoff Result |
NFC North | 2024 | 23% | TBD |
NFC West | 2021 | 20% | Won SB |
NFC South | 2002 | 20% | Won SB |
NFC East | 2008 | 19% | Lost CCG |
AFC South | 2007 | 19% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2015 | 18% | Lost CCG |
NFC North | 2012 | 17% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2005 | 17% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2005 | 16% | Lost CCG |
NFC West | 2020 | 16% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2006 | 16% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2002 | 15% | Lost SB |
The Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Bears are No. 1 on the list of 184 divisions since 2002 through Week 7, based on average team DVOA of the four teams in the division.
The other two best divisions at this point in history — the 2021 NFC West and 2002 NFC South — produced that season’s eventual Super Bowl winner.
I thought it might not – and that this would mostly be a fun experiment to see how good the NFC North really was – but then I looked into correlation and found that yes, there actually is something here.
In the full list you’ll find below, if we just rank the 2024 NFC North at No. 1 and the 2020 NFC East at No. 184 — and everyone in between accordingly — we actually see a correlation between the final season result and average division DVOA through Week 7.
Best Playoff Result from the Division | Avg. Division Rank Thru Week 7 |
Won SB | 73.6 |
Lost SB | 76.1 |
Lost CCG | 87.2 |
Lost DIV | 97.8 |
Lost WC | 109.0 |
Maybe it’s not surprising, but we can clearly state that the higher your division ranks after Week 7, the more likely that division is to produce the eventual Super Bowl winner – or at least Super Bowl contestant.
(Obviously, one good team in a bad division can still win the Super Bowl, so take this all with a grain of salt. Hello, Bills?)
Here’s the full table with every division since 2002:
Division | Year | Avg. DVOA Thru Week 7 | Best Playoff Result |
NFC North | 2024 | 23% | TBD |
NFC West | 2021 | 20% | Won SB |
NFC South | 2002 | 20% | Won SB |
NFC East | 2008 | 19% | Lost CCG |
AFC South | 2007 | 19% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2015 | 18% | Lost CCG |
NFC North | 2012 | 17% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2005 | 17% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2005 | 16% | Lost CCG |
NFC West | 2020 | 16% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2006 | 16% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2002 | 15% | Lost SB |
NFC East | 2007 | 14% | Won SB |
NFC East | 2009 | 14% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2016 | 14% | Lost DIV |
NFC North | 2019 | 13% | Lost CCG |
AFC West | 2014 | 13% | Lost DIV |
AFC North | 2021 | 12% | Lost SB |
NFC East | 2010 | 12% | Lost WC |
NFC South | 2020 | 11% | Won SB |
NFC West | 2012 | 11% | Lost SB |
AFC West | 2013 | 11% | Lost SB |
AFC East | 2022 | 11% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2018 | 11% | Lost CCG |
AFC North | 2023 | 10% | Lost CCG |
AFC North | 2020 | 10% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2004 | 9% | Won SB |
NFC North | 2011 | 9% | Lost DIV |
NFC South | 2008 | 9% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2011 | 8% | Lost SB |
AFC East | 2023 | 8% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2003 | 8% | Won SB |
AFC North | 2007 | 8% | Lost WC |
NFC West | 2023 | 7% | Lost SB |
NFC East | 2022 | 7% | Lost SB |
NFC West | 2013 | 7% | Won SB |
AFC West | 2004 | 7% | Lost WC |
AFC East | 2009 | 7% | Lost CCG |
AFC West | 2016 | 7% | Lost DIV |
AFC North | 2005 | 6% | Won SB |
NFC West | 2015 | 6% | Lost CCG |
NFC East | 2011 | 6% | Won SB |
NFC West | 2019 | 6% | Lost SB |
AFC South | 2010 | 6% | Lost WC |
AFC West | 2003 | 6% | Lost DIV |
AFC North | 2022 | 5% | Lost CCG |
AFC East | 2008 | 5% | Lost WC |
AFC North | 2010 | 5% | Lost SB |
NFC South | 2017 | 5% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2010 | 5% | Lost CCG |
AFC North | 2014 | 5% | Lost DIV |
AFC North | 2004 | 5% | Lost CCG |
AFC South | 2023 | 5% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2022 | 5% | Won SB |
NFC North | 2004 | 5% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2014 | 5% | Lost DIV |
AFC North | 2015 | 5% | Lost DIV |
NFC North | 2013 | 5% | Lost WC |
NFC South | 2013 | 5% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2017 | 5% | Won SB |
NFC North | 2016 | 4% | Lost CCG |
NFC West | 2024 | 4% | TBD |
NFC East | 2012 | 4% | Lost WC |
AFC West | 2024 | 4% | TBD |
AFC North | 2024 | 4% | TBD |
AFC North | 2006 | 4% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2012 | 4% | Lost CCG |
NFC North | 2017 | 4% | Lost CCG |
NFC East | 2004 | 4% | Lost SB |
NFC South | 2011 | 3% | Lost DIV |
NFC North | 2006 | 3% | Lost SB |
NFC South | 2019 | 3% | Lost WC |
AFC North | 2011 | 3% | Lost CCG |
AFC West | 2017 | 2% | Lost WC |
AFC West | 2006 | 2% | Lost DIV |
NFC West | 2014 | 2% | Lost SB |
NFC South | 2006 | 2% | Lost CCG |
AFC North | 2009 | 1% | Lost DIV |
NFC North | 2018 | 1% | Lost WC |
AFC East | 2007 | 1% | Lost SB |
AFC East | 2002 | 1% | Lost DIV |
NFC North | 2020 | 1% | Lost CCG |
NFC South | 2016 | 1% | Lost SB |
AFC South | 2008 | 1% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2019 | 1% | Won SB |
AFC North | 2018 | 1% | Lost WC |
NFC East | 2003 | 1% | Lost CCG |
NFC North | 2003 | 0% | Lost DIV |
AFC South | 2003 | 0% | Lost CCG |
NFC North | 2009 | 0% | Lost CCG |
NFC West | 2003 | 0% | Lost DIV |
NFC South | 2005 | 0% | Lost CCG |
AFC South | 2009 | 0% | Lost SB |
AFC South | 2004 | -1% | Lost DIV |
AFC North | 2017 | -1% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2024 | -1% | TBD |
NFC North | 2010 | -1% | Won SB |
AFC South | 2017 | -1% | Lost CCG |
AFC East | 2016 | -2% | Won SB |
NFC South | 2018 | -2% | Lost CCG |
NFC West | 2022 | -2% | Lost CCG |
NFC West | 2016 | -2% | Lost DIV |
NFC North | 2014 | -2% | Lost CCG |
AFC West | 2015 | -2% | Won SB |
AFC North | 2008 | -2% | Won SB |
NFC East | 2015 | -3% | Lost WC |
NFC West | 2002 | -3% | Lost DIV |
AFC South | 2019 | -3% | Lost CCG |
NFC North | 2023 | -3% | Lost CCG |
AFC East | 2013 | -3% | Lost CCG |
AFC West | 2020 | -3% | Lost SB |
AFC South | 2020 | -4% | Lost WC |
NFC East | 2002 | -4% | Lost CCG |
NFC South | 2015 | -4% | Lost SB |
NFC South | 2003 | -4% | Lost SB |
AFC South | 2005 | -4% | Lost DIV |
NFC North | 2021 | -4% | Lost DIV |
NFC South | 2012 | -4% | Lost CCG |
NFC South | 2021 | -4% | Lost DIV |
NFC North | 2007 | -5% | Lost CCG |
NFC West | 2018 | -5% | Lost SB |
AFC West | 2021 | -5% | Lost CCG |
AFC West | 2010 | -5% | Lost WC |
AFC East | 2014 | -5% | Won SB |
NFC West | 2009 | -5% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2023 | -6% | Won SB |
AFC South | 2024 | -6% | TBD |
AFC South | 2018 | -6% | Lost DIV |
AFC South | 2014 | -6% | Lost CCG |
NFC East | 2021 | -7% | Lost WC |
NFC South | 2009 | -7% | Won SB |
NFC North | 2015 | -7% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2019 | -7% | Lost WC |
NFC West | 2017 | -7% | Lost WC |
NFC East | 2023 | -7% | Lost WC |
AFC North | 2003 | -7% | Lost WC |
NFC North | 2008 | -7% | Lost WC |
AFC East | 2018 | -8% | Won SB |
AFC East | 2021 | -8% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2007 | -8% | Lost CCG |
AFC East | 2006 | -8% | Lost CCG |
AFC North | 2013 | -8% | Lost WC |
NFC East | 2013 | -8% | Lost WC |
AFC West | 2011 | -9% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2005 | -9% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2017 | -9% | Lost SB |
NFC South | 2022 | -9% | Lost WC |
NFC South | 2024 | -10% | TBD |
NFC East | 2018 | -10% | Lost DIV |
AFC South | 2006 | -10% | Won SB |
AFC North | 2019 | -10% | Lost DIV |
NFC South | 2010 | -10% | Lost DIV |
NFC North | 2022 | -11% | Lost WC |
AFC North | 2012 | -11% | Won SB |
AFC South | 2002 | -11% | Lost CCG |
NFC North | 2002 | -12% | Lost WC |
AFC South | 2011 | -12% | Lost DIV |
AFC North | 2016 | -13% | Lost CCG |
NFC South | 2007 | -13% | Lost WC |
AFC East | 2020 | -13% | Lost CCG |
NFC North | 2005 | -13% | Lost DIV |
NFC West | 2010 | -13% | Lost DIV |
NFC West | 2004 | -13% | Lost DIV |
NFC West | 2006 | -14% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2019 | -14% | Lost WC |
AFC West | 2012 | -14% | Lost DIV |
NFC South | 2004 | -14% | Lost CCG |
AFC South | 2016 | -14% | Lost DIV |
AFC South | 2022 | -14% | Lost DIV |
NFC South | 2023 | -15% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2009 | -15% | Lost DIV |
AFC South | 2021 | -15% | Lost DIV |
AFC North | 2002 | -15% | Lost DIV |
NFC West | 2008 | -15% | Lost SB |
AFC South | 2013 | -16% | Lost DIV |
AFC East | 2024 | -17% | TBD |
AFC South | 2012 | -17% | Lost DIV |
AFC West | 2008 | -18% | Lost DIV |
NFC South | 2014 | -18% | Lost DIV |
NFC West | 2011 | -18% | Lost CCG |
NFC West | 2005 | -19% | Lost SB |
AFC South | 2015 | -20% | Lost WC |
NFC West | 2007 | -20% | Lost DIV |
NFC East | 2020 | -20% | Lost WC |