Finding the Worst Best Ball Pick in Round 2 in 2024

I already wrote about how this year’s second round is the worst second round in fantasy football history — and I can’t stop being so fascinated by this round that we’re revisiting it once again.

There’s one player in particular I’m avoiding drafting in Round 2 every time.

Here are the most common Round 2 picks as of this writing (June 7):

• Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
• Marvin Harrison Jr., WR
• Drake London, WR
• Jonathan Taylor, RB
• Saquon Barkley, RB
• Chris Olave, WR
• Brandon Aiyuk, WR
• Davante Adams, WR
• Nico Collins, WR
• Deebo Samuel, WR
• Mike Evans, WR
• Jaylen Waddle, WR
• De’Von Achane, RB

The Worst Best Ball Pick in Round 2

Let’s now eliminate these players until we’re left with just one left — and that one will be revealed as the worst best ball pick in Round 2.

Picking a Running Back in Round 2 is Actually Maybe Good

I’ve come around to the idea that you probably want to draft RBs a bit earlier this year, and Round 2 is where you can get some real good ones for (relatively) cheap, compared to year’s past.

I think that makes Gibbs, Taylor, Barkley and Achane all solid Round 2 picks.

WR1s Are Automatically Better Picks Than WR2s

OK, maybe this isn’t always the case, but when the players are going near each other in the fantasy draft, I tend to give the nod to the player more locked into a leading role.

So that makes Harrison, London, Olave, Adams and Evans all viable Round 2 picks.

So we’re left with:

• Brandon Aiyuk, WR
• Nico Collins, WR
• Deebo Samuel, WR
• Jaylen Waddle, WR

Let’s go through each of these players one-by-one giving the case against:

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

He’s now a holdout threat. The 49ers have been trying to trade him. He’s sometimes the team’s WR1, but he’s not the team’s most explosive player and certainly takes a backseat to some of the other offensive weapons.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans

He’s probably-maybe Houston’s WR1, but the team did just trade for Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell looked like a star in the making before breaking his leg last year. According to the FTN NFL splits tool, Collins saw his receptions per game increase by 0.5 and his yards per game increase by 13 with Dell off the field.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Everything that is said about Aiyuk above applies to Samuel too, except for the holdout threat part. Samuel has more “score from anywhere” ability than Aiyuk, but he also caught 15 fewer passes than Aiyuk last year (in one fewer game). Samuel and Aiyuk both scored 7 receiving TDs, but Samuel added five more on the ground.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

Waddle ripped off another 1,000-yard season despite missing three games, but he is so far behind Tyreek Hill in the pecking order that it’s hard to see his ceiling increasing much more, Hill’s health permitting. The team also added Odell Beckahm Jr. and will see Achane’s role increase as well, which may result in less consistent volume for Waddle.

OK … drumroll ….

The worst Round 2 pick in 2024 best ball drafts is … Nico Collins.

Aiyuk and Samuel are going right next to each other, which makes sense for teammates that you aren’t quite sure which one is better for fantasy.

Waddle is going significantly later than Hill (and stacks nicely with him). He’s your last chance to get a piece of the Dolphins passing attack pie.

But Collins? He’s the first Houston Texans player to drop in 2024 best ball drafts — and we are not really sure he’s going to be the WR1. Diggs and Dell are both great players. Diggs’ Underdog ADP is in the middle of Round 3. Dell’s is all the way in Round 4! Give me the two-round discount on Dell.

Before Dell’s injury, Dell and Collins played nine games together. Here are their stats in those six games:

Yes, Collins’ stats are slightly better here, but they had the same amount of 100-yard games in this span. Also, keep in mind, Dell was a rookie.

Add in the complexity of Diggs joining this team, and I just can’t get behind drafting Collins in Round 2. I understand the talent. That’s obvious. But the spike weeks are going to be spread between Collins, Dell and Diggs. Just give me the cheaper ones.